#LaborMarketTestsWalsh

#就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 After Wash's speech, where will the market go? What opportunities do we have? Once Wash spoke, many people's expectations for rate cuts vanished. The rate cut dreams from the Powell era, frankly, all turned into fleeting illusions. This guy's tone was quite firm, basically saying inflation isn't falling fast enough, and the Fed could raise rates at any time. The market responded realistically; the probability of a rate hike in September surged past 50%, and sentiment immediately shifted to a tightening capital environment. If you closely watch the US stock market, you'll find the crisis has long been written in. The S&P 500 just broke a record high, but buying is becoming more concentrated, and the divergence between price and market breadth has hit a nearly 30-year record. The funniest part is those who blindly chased AI hype; before, even pigs could fly, but now with a slight cooldown, many have ridden an extremely thrilling roller coaster on hardware stocks—the unrealized gains didn't get realized in time and were quickly given back. Everyone is asking, with the one-way rally over, what exactly will make money next? Think about it, in this kind of high-level volatility, the worst thing is to put all your chips in one direction. Recently, I talked with some traders, and they brought up Brown's old-fashioned "permanent portfolio" again. The logic behind it is extremely simple: allocate a quarter each to stocks, long-term bonds, Bitcoin, and cash, then periodically rebalance. The best part of this mechanism is that it forces you to buy high and sell low by design: when assets skyrocket, you sell some; when they crash, you buy the dip to replenish.

Bitcoin Is Holding $78K. Friday’s Jobs Report Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering September with the market caught between strong August momentum and a much tougher macro environment. Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in August, but failed to hold the move above $80K. Now the next major catalyst is already on the calendar. The U.S. jobs report. My radar: 🟠 $BTC — $77K support, $79.4K–$80.8K resistance 🔵 $ETH — watching relative strength 🟣 $SOL — sensitive to liquidity 🟢 $XRP — watching institutional demand The jobs report matters because the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision. Markets are currently pricing around a 60% probability of a September rate hike after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. But that expectation can change quickly if employment data comes in weaker than expected. 0 That is why Friday's number could become the next major trigger for risk assets. A weak jobs report could reduce rate-hike expectations. Lower rate expectations could support liquidity. And that could give Bitcoin another opportunity to challenge $80K. But a stronger-than-expected labor report could have the opposite effect. Higher rate expectations. Higher yields. More pressure on risk assets. That is the macro battle happening underneath the chart. Technically, the structure is still clear. Buyers defended the $77K area. But sellers continue to appear around $80K. Bitcoin is therefore sitting between important support and resistance while the market waits for a catalyst. 1 There is also an interesting institutional signal. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted around $924M between August 24 and 28. Yet price still failed to break $80K. That suggests strong demand is being met by significant selling pressure. This is where $ETH becomes interesting. Ethereum ETFs also attracted around $824M during the same period, showing that institutional demand is not limited to Bitcoin. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BTCGoldCorrelation

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

$BTC : The Risk Signal Is Turning Red Walsh’s hawkish stance has pushed September rate-hike expectations higher. With restrictive rates likely to persist, risk assets are facing a tougher macro backdrop. Next week’s Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE data could become the catalyst. Any major disappointment may trigger a sharp risk-off move. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation

🚨 Wash says "interest rate hike," trying to scare BTC off? Don't rush. Wash emphasizes inflation risk, with expectations of a rate hike in September heating up, the crypto community's first reaction is simple: Dollar strengthens → risk assets under pressure → BTC gets hit short-term. But this feels more like a macro sentiment shock, not a sudden deterioration in BTC's fundamentals.#WalshInflationRisk #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

📊 [Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

#WalshInflationRisk Walsh didn’t commit to a September hike at Jackson Hole, but the market clearly heard a warning 🏛️ He said inflation remains above 2%, financial conditions are not restrictive and the labor market is still near full employment. He also pushed back on forward guidance, keeping short-term rates as the Fed’s main policy tool. What stood out to me is how quickly expectations shifted without an explicit promise. September hike odds rose from around 35% to nearly 58%, while the two-year yield moved from 4.22% to 4.35%. Stocks, gold and BTC all fell afterward 📉 To me, this wasn’t a clear signal that a hike is coming. It was a reminder that the Fed doesn’t believe the inflation problem is finished—and doesn’t want markets assuming the path is already decided. September now feels less about one speech and more about which incoming data point breaks the balance first.

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week is loaded with key employment data, and the big question is: after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, can $BTC hold the $80K level? 👀 Pharaoh’s view is straightforward: the economic data keeps coming in stronger, putting Warsh’s hawkish stance under increasing pressure from the labor market. Now the focus shifts to this week’s releases. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #SchwabExpandsCrypto

[Pharaoh’s Market Watch] This week brings a heavy schedule of U.S. employment data. Following Wash’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the key question for Bitcoin is whether $BTC can continue holding the $80K level. 👀 The latest economic figures have been coming in stronger, giving Wash more reason to maintain a hawkish stance. #LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BTCGoldCorrelation #BroadcomDellAIResults

🚨 The biggest market shock of the week hasn’t even happened yet… 😅 #就业数据密集公布，沃什政策立场受检验 JOLTS, ADP, jobless claims… and then Friday brings the big one: Nonfarm Payrolls. 📊 The market is basically getting hit with one employment report after another, so honestly, I wouldn’t expect much calm this week. Walsh has already made it clear that inflation remains a priority. If the labor market stays strong, the hawks have more reason to remain tough. #DailyOrbit

Bitcoin Is Near $79K. The Next 5 Days Could Decide What Comes Next. $BTC is entering one of the most important macro weeks of the current market. Bitcoin is trading around the $78K area after recovering from the recent sell-off. But the market is now facing a much bigger catalyst. The U.S. jobs report. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is scheduled for Friday, September 4#LaborMarketTestsWalsh #BroadcomDellAIResults