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9.16 Final Judgment! All current fluctuations are just traps before the dawn ⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract trading carries very high risk CPI dust has settled, and the market has finally shaken off data suppression in the short term, entering a brief breathing window. But all experienced traders know: the real big move never lies in the CPI, but in the interest rate decision. The biggest uncertainty in the market has now shifted: CPI is only the "current state of inflation," the 9.16 Federal Reserve decision sets the tone for future monetary policy. The market is now at an extreme stage of game theory: Inflation stickiness in August has not disappeared, employment remains very resilient, and rate hike expectations remain high; But funds are betting the Fed will lean moderately dovish and slow down its aggressive stance. The divergence between bulls and bears has reached an extreme, and market fluctuations will only become more intense. Here are the two ultimate scenarios explained: 1. Hawkish outcome: reaffirm anti-inflation priority, keep rate hike space All rebounds in this round will be fully given back, ETH returns to a pressured downtrend channel, breaking lower in the range to open new short opportunities. 2. Dovish outcome: acknowledge inflation stabilization, pause rate hikes Market suppressed sentiment is fully released, this rebound continues, and mainstream coins start a sustained recovery trend. There is no third moderate slow bull scenario. On 9.16, it’s either a trend reversal or the end of the rebound. The current calm, fluctuations, and slight rallies are all disguises before the storm. Control your hands, avoid heavy positions, don’t make predictions, and wait for the final judgment. The trend hasn’t arrived, the game continues. #ETH #FederalReserveDecision #MarketOutlook

Don't be fooled by the CPI rebound! This is just a typical trap by the main force to lure bulls and shake out positions ⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract trading carries very high risk Many retail investors have just established bullish beliefs, thinking that with CPI released and bad news fully priced in, the market is about to start a rebound trend. Let me be straightforward: the current rise is the most typical transitional bull trap. This ETH rally has no fundamental reversal support. CPI is not cooling down, inflation stickiness remains stubborn, non-farm employment is still overheated, and Fed rate hike expectations remain high. All macro fundamentals still lean hawkish. Why is it still rising? Purely market sentiment recovering from oversold conditions + concentrated short covering. A week of extreme panic has forced the market to absorb a huge volume of short positions. Neutral data release and the worst expectations falling through have forced passive liquidations, pushing prices up. This is capital behavior, not trend behavior. The main force's favorite tactic: Before major data releases and FOMC meetings, use small rebounds to repair the market, attract retail investors to chase longs and take the bait, then wait for the Fed decision on 9.16 to complete a new round of unified harvesting. Every bit of the current rebound is an opportunity to sell at high levels. Don't mistake an emotional rebound for a bull market restart. The real direction has never been in the CPI, only in the Fed. #ETH #TradingAwareness #MacroReview

9.16 Federal Reserve Ultimate Tone! All current market conditions are transitional illusions ⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract risk is extremely high CPI dust has settled, short-term suspense resolved, but the mid-term life-and-death battle has just begun. The current market status is very clear: Inflation stickiness remains, employment resilience is very strong, the dollar remains firm at a high level. Fundamentals do not support a bull market reversal, it is merely an oversold sentiment recovery. The biggest trap in this round of rebound: Many mistake the "short-covering rebound" for the "start of a bull reversal." Once these two are confused, the 9.16 Federal Reserve decision will be a large-scale harvest. The focus next is on three things, all concentrated on the September 16 interest rate meeting: 1. Whether a rate hike will be implemented (directly setting the short-term bull or bear tone) 2. Whether the post-meeting statement continues a hawkish tone or pauses rate hikes with a dovish tilt 3. The remaining monetary policy path guidance for the year (determining the overall trend for Q4) Currently, the market is in an emotional premium during a news vacuum. No new negative news, so rebound; Once the Fed raises rate hike and high interest rate expectations again, all rebounds in this round will be fully given back. In simple terms, the current situation is summarized as: CPI stops panic, the Federal Reserve decides life or death. The current rise is just a halftime break, The real trend will be revealed on 9.16.

Why did the CPI meet expectations but still surge against the trend? Understanding the main force's trap logic ⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract trading is highly risky Many people were completely confused by last night's market: CPI is not dovish, no rate cut, data is neutral, so why did ETH violently rebound? The crypto world never trades facts, only expectation gaps. Before the data release, market sentiment had been scared for a week by non-farm payrolls, high oil prices, and high PPI. The whole network was unanimously bearish, rate hike expectations were maxed out, retail investors collectively bottom-fished short positions, and the market kept shrinking and drifting down. Everyone was betting: CPI will explode, inflation will get out of control, and the Fed will be hawkish to the extreme. But the CPI just hit the line and met expectations. No super hawkish move, no loss of control, no worst-case scenario. That means: the market's biggest bearish expectations were directly disproved. The most violent rise in financial markets is never due to good news landing, but the disappearance of panic. A week's worth of short positions piled up were forced to stop loss, passively lifting the market, forming a rapid short squeeze rebound. This is why, despite neutral data, the market showed a very strong recovery.

9.11 CPI Divergence Market: ETH Rebound Is Just a Brief Breather, The Real Test Is the Fed on 9.16 ⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract trading carries very high risk On September 11, the CPI data was released, overall in line with market expectations, but the core CPI month-on-month was slightly higher, directly pushing the probability of a September rate hike above 85%. In theory, with rising rate hike expectations and a stronger dollar, high-risk assets should be under pressure, yet ETH staged a rapid rebound. The core truth behind the market divergence: the market priced in the worst-case scenario in advance. Before the data release, non-farm payrolls, PPI, and oil prices kept rising, with bears collectively betting on runaway inflation and many short positions set up. When the CPI only met expectations without a shocking deterioration, the biggest panic black swan disappeared, causing shorts to cut losses and triggering a forced short squeeze, pushing ETH up sharply in the short term. This was not a fundamental positive. This round of rally is driven by panic relief plus short covering and emotional repair, not a trend reversal. Inflation remains far above the Fed's 2% target, and the door to rate hikes is not closed. Attention immediately turns to the Fed meeting on September 16, the real watershed for this market: 1. Scenario one: a 25 basis point rate hike with hawkish tone. Short-term rate hike expectations are fully realized, likely leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario. The ETH rebound will probably face pressure and fall back, retesting lower support. 2. Scenario two: maintain rates unchanged, release dovish signals. Rate hike expectations cool rapidly, the dollar weakens, and this rebound will continue, with ETH expected to sustain

CPI just met expectations, so why did ETH surge against the trend? ⚠️ Market review, not investment advice, contract trading carries very high risk Everyone originally assumed: only if CPI is significantly below expectations would the market rally; merely meeting expectations should maintain a range-bound market. But reality was completely opposite. The data precisely hit the expected line, yet ETH quickly surged in the short term. Many were puzzled—neutral data, so where is the upward momentum coming from? The core truth is never about the data itself being good or bad, but that the expectations have already been priced in by the market. For a whole week before the CPI release, strong non-farm payrolls, rising oil prices, and increasing PPI led the market to continuously trade on "sticky inflation and a high probability of Fed rate hikes." U.S. Treasury yields kept rising, the major indexes remained under pressure and volatile, bearish sentiment accumulated, and many traders had already bet on CPI blowing past expectations again, building up a large number of short positions in the leveraged market. The market had already priced in the "hawkish possibility" ahead of time. When the CPI finally came out, all indicators just met expectations, and the most feared "inflation spiraling out of control" did not occur. The biggest black swan risk disappeared, and the bearish shoe officially dropped. Here is a key logic to clarify: • Exceeding expectations = a new round of panic selling; • Meeting expectations = worst-case scenario disproved; • Sharp decline = comprehensive bullish celebration. Meeting expectations is not exactly bullish, but it ended the extreme panic of "inflation out of control and continued aggressive rate hikes." The sword hanging over the market did not fall, and panic funds began to retreat.

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Silence Before the Storm The most tormenting aspect of the market is neither the despair of a one-sided plunge nor the frenzy of continuous rallies, but the suspense hanging overhead, the uncertain wait for life or death. For a whole week, the market has been like frogs slowly boiled in warm water. The nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly cooled down, the employment market heated up completely, directly pushing the Fed's rate hike probability to 60.2%, with hawkish expectations firmly pinned on the market. Everyone knows that the current sideways consolidation, altcoin frenzy, and mainstream bloodsucking have never been signals of market stabilization; they are just funds in extreme observation and intense game theory. Tomorrow at 20:30, the US August CPI data will be released. This is the final decisive battle of this rate hike cycle and the day of life-or-death judgment for everyone. This is not an ordinary economic data release; it is the Fed's last and most critical inflation trump card before the September policy meeting. Before this, the PPI early warning, the super-strong nonfarm employment, the continuous rise in oil prices, and the new Fed chair's hawkish stance have all layered together, pushing market sentiment to a critical point. Both bulls and bears dare not act rashly, leveraged funds continue to shrink, and market volatility is extremely compressed. Every move is to wait for tomorrow's ultimate tone-setting. Many people don't understand the current market: Why is the market consolidating sideways while altcoins riot one after another? Why does ETH repeatedly spike and wash out losses, never opening a one-sided space? Why do good news not push prices up, bad news not cause deep drops, and both rises and falls are extremely restrained? There is only one answer: all funds are waiting for the CPI to decide life or death.

Desireless Observation of the Subtle, Desireful Observation of the Boundary — Two Perspectives in Trading In the world of trading, many people have experienced this confusion: when out of position, the market is clear and understandable, but once they buy in, they immediately lose clarity. It's not that the market suddenly changed, but that your mindset changed. The Dao De Jing says: "Always be desireless to observe the subtle; always have desire to observe the boundary." Applied to trading, these are two core abilities. 1. Desireless Observation of the Subtle: The Objective Perspective When Out of Position When you have no position, you are free from the anxiety of holding assets and the distractions of floating profits or losses. You can observe the market logic, trends, and opportunities like a bystander. This is "desireless observation of the subtle" — without emotion or attachment to gains and losses, you can see the true "subtlety" of the market. Many misunderstand "desireless" as having no desire at all, which is incorrect. Trading itself aims for profit; "desireless" does not mean not wanting to make money, but rather not letting the desire for profit interfere with your judgment. 2. Desireful Observation of the Boundary: Boundary Awareness When Holding a Position "Desireful" does not mean greed, but rather having a clear understanding before entering a trade: What is the logic behind this trade? Is it worth taking? Does the risk-reward ratio favor you? More importantly, you must draw a clear "boundary" for yourself. This boundary is your stop-loss level. At what point will you exit if the price falls? How much loss will you tolerate before stopping? These are things you must calculate before entering. Many traders see only the opportunity but forget to protect their boundaries, resulting in small gains but large losses. 3. The Truth of Trading: Seeing Opportunities is Skill; Maintaining Boundaries is Mastery

Currently, the overall four-hour cycle of the US stock market is weak, with the three major indices continuing a high-level pullback adjustment trend, and bears dominating in the short term. Influenced by rising US Treasury yields and geopolitical situations pushing up inflation expectations, market risk sentiment has cooled, with heavyweight blue chips and most tech stocks under pressure and weakening, while only a few sectors resist the trend and hold up. Technically, the moving averages of each index are turning downward, with insufficient rebound momentum, clear resistance above, and key support below yet to be tested. The short-term market is mainly weak and volatile, with rebounds mostly corrective in nature, making it difficult to see a trend-driven rise. The market is heavily disturbed by news, with frequent false breakouts. In terms of operations, it is necessary to avoid chasing highs, cautiously trade within key support and resistance ranges, and strictly control risks.