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#特朗普接受新版伦理条款, CLARITY vote approaching—don't let unanimous optimism lead the narrative. The CLARITY bill's pass hasn't been as smooth as imagined. There's a general consensus in the industry: compromise on ethical proposals is reached, and the September 15 procedural vote is highly likely to pass, with crypto expected to benefit regulators. But considering past legislative lessons in the Senate, this optimism has already been priced in by the market, and many people have overlooked the risk of a failed vote. Many people can't tell the rules of the game between the House and Senate. A simple majority in the House is enough, but for the Senate to start a bill debate, the hard threshold is 60 votes, not 51. Even if all Republicans vote in favor, they still need to win over at least seven Democratic lawmakers for cross-party support. Currently, at the committee stage, only two Democratic lawmakers are willing to vote in favor, leaving a swing vote gap very clear. Even though the new version includes ethics-related content, the compromise version only limits officials from adding new crypto holdings and does not mandate the disposal of assets they already hold. Warren faction Democrats are not convinced, believing that conflict of interest loopholes still exist and publicly vouching they will not vote in favor. Besides partisan infighting, traditional banking is another undeniable obstacle. Many local banking associations have collectively pressured against the stablecoin interest clause in the bill, fearing it would drain large amounts of bank deposits and impact domestic lending business, continuously lobbying swing lawmakers to vote against it. The industry itself is not completely unified either; there have been leading platforms previously stating "I'd rather not have it."Crypto Whale Activity
$BTC whales show clear divergence, with large amounts of chips withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets for accumulation at low levels during the pullback phase; meanwhile, some large holders are depositing to exchanges, betting on the FOMC outcome. Overall, the strategy is mainly range-based repositioning, with no large-scale one-way fleeing or buying.
$ETH has some long-dormant old addresses transferring chips to exchanges, indicating a small amount of cash-out intention; most mainstream whales choose to wait and see, with on-chain large transfers remaining low in activity, awaiting macro developments before making decisions.
$ZEC shows intense speculative sentiment, with whales withdrawing chips from multiple exchanges over several days to new wallets in anticipation of legislation; meanwhile, the contract market still holds large short positions with long-short clashes, amplifying volatility through chip movements.
Overall, on the eve of events, whales generally contract their actions and do not easily bet on one-sided moves. On-chain transfers are for reference only and should not be directly followed.
Personal market view, not investment advice
$BTC $ETH #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 $ZEC The probability of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 16 has been revised five times in six weeks:
7/31 67% → 8/7 after nonfarm payrolls -23,000 44% → 8/27 down to 35% → Warsh Jackson Hole speech 66% → Waller dovish 55% → August nonfarm payrolls +162,000 63% → after PPI 5.4% 71% → after core CPI 0.3% 88% → now 87%.
The rate hike itself is no longer a variable; the dot plot at 2:00 AM Thursday is the key: In June, 9 members expected at least one hike, with 6 expecting more than one. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.97%, just a step away from 5%. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
CME interest rate futures currently price in nearly a 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike this week. August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding expectations, combined with inflation concerns from diesel price increases. Waller has previously stated clearly: a slight rebound in inflation supports tightening, and institutions have been raising their rate hike expectations.
However, a high probability does not equal a 100% certainty. A minority of committee members may still hold back, and if there is significant internal disagreement at the meeting, there is a small chance of a black swan event with no action. The real market key point is not whether to hike, but the dot plot and Powell's statements at the press conference.
Scenario 1: A 25bp hike is implemented, along with signals of possible further hikes, leading to continued rises in U.S. Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and pressure on risk assets like BTC and ZEC.
Scenario 2: The hike is implemented but emphasized as a one-time adjustment with a pause in tightening afterward, which could trigger profit-taking on bad news and a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" rebound in risk assets.
Scenario 3: An unexpected no hike, which would be a major positive surprise, causing U.S. Treasuries to fall sharply and crypto assets to rebound significantly in the short term.
The market has already fully priced in the rate hike. If it is simply implemented, market volatility will be limited; the most likely trigger for market moves is an upward revision of the terminal rate in the dot plot, implying more than one hike this year.
The main logic remains unchanged: a high interest rate environment continues to suppress risk assets, BTC spot ETFs are still seeing outflows, and bulls find it difficult to stage a major reversal. The focus in trading is on the reaction of long-term U.S. Treasury yields.Good evening, teachers
BTC and ETH lead small rebounds, mainstream still grinding inside the range
$BTC around 77500, stuck between 76500–78000. Last week’s high of 82000 didn’t hold, daily chart still above the mid-term moving average, but momentum clearly weakened. Resistance above at 80000–82000. Likely to continue oscillating before the Fed meeting on the 15th–16th. Only a firm break above 78000 can qualify for another push to 80K; a drop below 76500 targets 72K
$ETH around 2500, moving in sync with BTC, slightly more resistant to decline. Support at 2450–2480, resistance at 2540–2670. Mid-term structure still bullish; to strengthen independently must break 2550 with volume, otherwise continue to follow the market
$SOL around 100, weaker than the first two, recently oscillating between 99–105, short-term moving averages are chaotic. Still about 30% gain over 30 days, a retracement after a rise. Support at 98–99, losing that likely to drop to 95; rebound targets 103–105. Lacking independent catalysts, volatility will be greater
$ZEC running an independent trend. From just over 800 at the end of August to nearly 1298 by September 9, mainly due to Grayscale Zcash ETF, privacy narrative, and short squeeze. Currently retracing about 15%, digesting between 1050–1120. Support at 1050–1076, resistance at 1180–1250
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO #特朗普接受新版伦理条款Here's a rundown of what the latest version of the CLARITY Act's ethics provisions changed, surprisingly raising the chance of passage from the previous 13% to 30%: #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近
Unlike the July version that only banned "issuing coins for money during tenure," last night’s final version introduced the Tillis-Gallego framework, patching three loopholes:
① Forced divestment — officials/judges/spouses must sell significant crypto holdings or place them into blind trusts;
② State attorneys general gain enforcement power; previously penalties were only under the Department of Justice, which was ineffective, now state attorneys general can act too;
③ The prohibition scope expands to include the president, vice president, members of Congress, judges, and their spouses.
To secure the 60 votes needed by the 15th, Republicans conceded the state attorneys general enforcement power that Democrats had fought for half a year. Because of this, the passage probability rose from a dream to 30%.
But everyone should note, don’t mistake the start of debate for a finalized framework as a real positive. Because after debate ends, there’s still a passage vote, and $BTC is insensitive to this kind of news.
The real big move will be on the final signing day, brothers, don’t get your hopes up too early. And here I see a very clear difference between "serious" assets and memes. Since the launch of the ETF: 🟣 XRP — ~$1.70 billion net inflows 🟢 SOL — ~$1.36 billion 🐕 DOGE — just over $12 million That is, SOL + XRP attracted over $3 billion, while DOGE in about 10 months couldn't even come close to this figure. Moreover, each of these categories separately received more than 100 times the capital than DOGE. And there is an even more interesting point. XRP received $12.29 million in one day. About the same amount as all DOGE Looking at ETF outflows broken down by fund, the conclusion is different:
· ARKB alone −2,991 units, accounting for 51% of last week's total outflows
· GBTC −1,640 units, old positions continue to exit
· IBIT −677 units, net outflow for three consecutive days; while the previous week it bought 8,900 units in a single week
· MSBT +252 units, Morgan Stanley channel has had no net outflow on any of the nearly 10 trading days
Outflows dominated by a single fund do not equal a collective shift by institutions. Wealth management channels are still net buyers. US crude and Brent crude fell sharply by $1.4, currently priced at $98.749 and $104.29 per barrel respectively. Trump stated that Russia and Ukraine have agreed not to target each other's energy infrastructure.
On the surface, this news suggests a pullback in oil prices, but the real question is—does it ease the "energy supply panic," or is it just a temporary cooling of sentiment? The agreement between Russia and Ukraine not to strike energy targets means that the market's previously priced-in "supply disruption risk" has been partially withdrawn. However, the Middle East situation remains unresolved; the risks in the Strait of Hormuz and damage to Saudi pipelines have not disappeared.
The short-term drop in oil prices offers some relief to inflation expectations and risk assets, but it is not a reversal. The true direction depends on whether the Middle East will take over the lead. If new incidents occur in the Strait of Hormuz, this small decline will quickly be erased.
At the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, oil prices surged, then every "progress in negotiations" news caused prices to plunge, only to be pulled back by new attacks. Oil prices only peaked when the supply situation truly stabilized. Price drops caused by news are often just interludes.
The de-escalation between Russia and Ukraine is good news, but the Middle East remains unsettled. Oil prices have two legs—one has loosened, the other is still tense. Don't mistake a short-term pullback for a trend reversal.
Keep an eye on the Middle East, especially developments in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi pipelines. If oil prices continue to fall, inflation pressure eases, which is an indirect positive for $BTC; if the Middle East takes over, oil prices will rebound, and risk assets will remain under pressure. No rush to conclusions—watch which leg stabilizes first.
#霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟
#原油供应扰动反复，油价高位波动 $ETH $CL Last week, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of 5,907 BTC, whereas the previous week it was +12,690 BTC.
But in the same week, the ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $197 million, with a single day on 9/11 seeing +$216 million.
The funds haven't exited the market; they are rotating between BTC and ETH. A vote and a resolution early Wednesday and Thursday this week will decide which way it goes next.
A thread with 5 images clearly explaining the key data to watch this week. 🧵First, let's reconcile the accounts. On 9/11, I clearly wrote a bearish scenario: "Break 76,563 to look down to the previous platform at 74,000."
Actual result: BTC did break below 76,563, but only dipped to 76,046 before stopping the decline and rebounding, without touching 74,000. The direction was right, but the depth was wrong—the oversold funds caught the market around 76,000. Presenting both the correct and incorrect parts is more meaningful than only reporting the correct ones.
We are now in the "data vacuum period" between CPI and FOMC. The typical feature of this window is an oversold rebound plus low-volatility sideways movement, but with poor sustainability—big money is waiting for the decision and will not push prices up aggressively before the boot drops, so the rebound level is naturally limited.
On the capital side, BTC spot ETFs still recorded a net inflow of about $987 million last week (value fluctuates with the market), and institutional allocation demand acts as a buffer below, consistent with the oversold rebound direction.
In short: one boot (CPI) has landed, the other boot (FOMC) is still hanging. This rebound is an oversold recovery, with the level constrained by the 9/17 decision—watch if 79,000 can be reclaimed for the rebound, and if 76,046 can hold for stabilization. During the vacuum window before the decision, control your positions, avoid betting on one side, and wait for the boot to drop before deciding the direction.
The above is an analysis of market structure and macro environment, not investment advice, trading signals, or profit guarantees#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Volume sell-off, the "listing is the peak" old script
$CP is a bit miserable today, basically giving back all the gains since Coinbase fully opened trading on 9/4 last week.
It just hit a historical high of 0.108 on 9/2, then retraced 88% in 12 days, classic "listing is the peak".
What’s more painful is the volume sell-off today—OKX 24h trading volume hit 17 million USD, it’s not that no one is buying, but that someone is really dumping. This script, looks familiar?
Bottom-fishing warning: there’s a basement below the floor
Brothers, don’t get itchy just because $CP is cheap at 0.013 now. 30 days -32%, 7 days -36%, coming down from the 0.108 peak without even a decent rebound.
This kind of "gradual decline + volume sell-off" chart means those bottom-fishers become relay runners. If you really want to gamble, at least wait for the daily chart to stabilize. At this slope, there’s hell below the basement.$ARB has perfectly played out the phrase "buy the rumor, sell the fact" this week!
With the news of Robinhood Chain landing on Arbitrum and trading revenue going into the DAO treasury brewing, on September 6th, the price violently surged from 0.133 to 0.205 in a single day, with a maximum daily amplitude of over 50%. OKX's single exchange trading volume reached $43.78 million, four to five times the usual.
Robinhood migrating its stock, options, and crypto trading product lines entirely to Arbitrum One marks a landmark event as the first traditional broker to deploy core business on L2. The DAO treasury is expected to receive millions of dollars in annual revenue sharing. After the news was confirmed, smart money began to cash out in batches, with a seven-day drop of 16% and a 48-hour drop of 4.9%, steadily declining back to 0.136.
The lifecycle of event-driven markets is always like this: the day the positive news is announced is often the exit day set by the initial funds; those chasing the headlines end up receiving chips from others taking profits.
This is not a script unique to $ARB; it is the universal structure of all event-driven markets. Money rushing into the hotspot profits from the expectation gap, and when the positive news lands, the expectation gap disappears.
The 0.13 level is the structural bottom line of this pullback; once broken, there is no decent short-term support below.
#Robinhood加密交易量8月环比增61% BTC had a strong green candle, will DOGE and ZEC follow the surge tonight?
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC at 77141, despite the external market for storage chips crashing so badly, BTC still closed up +1.34%, rising 22% in the past 30 days. This green candle indicates that the money that sold off AI high-valuation stocks hasn't left the market; it's moving into hard assets with cash flow. Once 77000 breaks, the whales will buy in; only after standing above 77500 can we look at 78800. Falling below 77521 tests 74460. Today it held steady, so only if the night market sentiment is confident will there be movement.
$DOGE at 0.085, up 3% during the day, with 0.086 to 0.09 being mostly trapped positions. When BTC is green and sentiment warms, meme coins are the most sensitive—they act as a sentiment thermometer. If BTC holds, DOGE will push to 0.09; if BTC reverses, DOGE will fall fastest. Small positions should avoid big plays.
$ZEC at 1152, this round's privacy token, rebounded 6%, with volume ratio 82% above average, up 134% in 30 days. When the market is green, ZEC is more elastic than BTC. 1200 is a key resistance level; only breaking it with volume opens up space. If night market sentiment heats up, ZEC is the most aggressive small coin to rally, but quick in and out with good stop-loss is advised.
BTC sets the tone for sentiment, DOGE gauges sentiment heat, ZEC bets on elasticity. Tonight, watch if BTC can hold 77500; if it does, sentiment coins will have a run.
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO #Trump Accepts New Ethics Rules, CLARITY Vote Approaches Trump's "Compromise," Crypto Circle's Fog, Gold's Undercurrent $BTC $XAUT
On September 14, Trump accepted about 80% of the content of the new ethics rules, and Senate Republicans released the updated text of the CLARITY Act. However, the market reaction was lukewarm—Bitcoin hovered around $77,000, still down about 3% from last week.
CLARITY Act: Hoped to be Worn Down by Time
The core of the act is to end the jurisdiction tug-of-war between the SEC and CFTC.
Gold's "Calm," Bitcoin's "Anxiety"
The trigger for Bitcoin's decline is macro data: August PPI rose 5.4% year-over-year, the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 4.9%, and WTI crude oil surpassed $100. Under these triple headwinds, over $214 million in crypto longs were liquidated in the past four hours. Meanwhile, gold's posture under the same conditions is quite different. RBC Capital Markets believes that drivers such as geopolitical instability, de-dollarization, and depreciation concerns "remain intact," and gold is preparing to resume its rise above $5,000.
Bitcoin is being "bled" by high interest rates, while gold is being "accumulated" by safe-haven funds. The CLARITY vote may bring short-term volatility, but the true determinants of Bitcoin's medium-term trajectory are interest rates, inflation, and dollar credit—and on these three fronts, gold has already taken the lead. $CAP Short Rules:
300u budget. Use 100u now.
Save 200u for +10% wicks.
Why?
Full leverage now = no room later.
Long wicks pay the most.
Max risk 5% of account.
Trade to trade again tomorrow.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq 🔥 $BTC / $ETH | TWO DIFFERENT WAYS TO MONETIZE SECURITY
$BTC ties economic value directly to the security of its monetary ledger.
$ETH ties economic value to security that supports programmable state.
Bitcoin’s network security protects a relatively focused objective: the integrity and ownership of bitcoin. Ethereum’s security protects a broader environment where contracts, tokens, and applications maintain shared state.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq $ETH Tonight's Early Morning Forecast Script
【A. Weak rebound with turnover then drop again】 Around 2500 → rebound to 2505/2510 → can't go higher → bears re-enter → 2486 → 2478 → 2462 The most standard scenario, allowing previous bears to take profits and new bears to take over at a higher level Re-establish support at 2514–2515
【B. False breakout to lure bulls then crash】 First spike to 2510/2514 or even higher → triggers chasing bulls + old bears stop loss → suddenly drops back below 2505 → 2500 → break 2486 → 2462 First clears crowded bears, then market gains new downward space After breakout, retest at 2514 can hold
【C. BTC strong, ETH continues to lag】 BTC maintains high level/slight rise, ETH never surpasses 2505–2514 → ETH/BTC continues weakening → 2486 repeatedly consumed → eventually breaks → 2478/2462 No need for BTC crash, ETH's relative weakness drives the drop ETH starts obvious catch-up rally, relative strength reversal
【D. 2486 triggers chain stop losses 】Grinding below 2500 → effective break below 2486 → long positions stop loss/liquidation → rebound at 2486 fails → accelerate drop to 2478 → 2462 The fastest path, key is previous low turning into resistance After breaking 2486, quickly recover above 2495
Currently, I lean most towards A, then C. BTC
Short
• Trigger one of two:
1. Push again to $78,600–$78,750 with 15m close bearish
2. 15m close below $78,150
• Stop loss: $78,920
• Targets: $77,700 / $77,150
Long
• Only open after 1h/4h stabilizes above $78,400 and pullback to $78,050–$78,200 holds
• Stop loss $77,780
• Targets $78,800 / $79,600
ETH
Short:
$2,522–$2,538 stagnation
Stop loss $2,558
Targets $2,478 / $2,462
Long:
$2,458–$2,472 recovery
Stop loss $2,438
SOL
• Short: $102.10–$102.40 stagnation
Stop loss $103.10
Target $100.20
• Long: $98.90–$99.30 recovery
Stop loss $97.80A trader recently established short positions at the end of the rallies in $LAB and $FLOCK, entering $FLOCK at 0.0879 and exiting at 0.06951, recording approximately 416% profit, while $LAB was viewed as a target for a pump-and-hold strategy. The repeatedly verified pattern is: an altcoin sentiment surge combined with the sudden launch of a contract often corresponds to a phase top. Recently, $PONS and USELESS have shown similar rhythms. The underlying mechanism is that new contracts often bring a concentrated release of leverage and shorting tools. After short-term funds push prices up on sentiment, the lack of follow-through causes prices to fall back easily, and once spot buying weakens simultaneously, the retracement speed is further amplified. However, such opportunities are not stable profits; most of the time, one must endure floating losses and hold positions, with position management being the key to the outcome. On the macro level, after CPI and PPI releases, many institutions raised their expectations for a September rate hike. The $BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of nearly $450 million over three days, Oracle's AI cloud revenue increased by 121%, and risk appetite and capital flows may still amplify altcoin volatility. Going forward, one can observe whether the open interest and funding rates of newly launched contracts rise simultaneously as auxiliary conditions for sentiment peaking. The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice; please assess risks cautiously. Anthropic is truly starting to compete fiercely on AI computing power.
They have just signed another massive computing power deal worth $13.7 billion over 6 years, again with Rum Group, which has close ties to Trump.
Even more astonishing, in less than a year, Anthropic has locked in computing power contracts totaling about $517 billion, corresponding to at least 14.8GW of potential computing capacity.
This is no longer ordinary cloud service procurement.
This is a battle for computing power, chips, and electricity.
Why such madness?
Demand for Claude Code is exploding, and AI is moving beyond chat tools into programming, enterprise office work, and production processes.
The more people use the model, the greater the computing power consumption.
So now the AI war is not just about whose model is smarter, but who can lock down electricity, chips, data centers, and storage first.
Google, Amazon, Nvidia, and Broadcom are all providing computing power around Anthropic.
This is a very direct signal for the AI hardware chain.
Especially storage.
AI models consume computing power, data centers burn electricity, and storage companies like SanDisk (SNDK) handle the increasingly massive data demands.
The AI arms race has entered its second half.
What will truly be valuable next may not be who can tell the best AI story.
But who holds the chips, electricity, storage, and sufficiently large data centers. #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO $ENA is the synthetic dollar.
$OKB is CEX float.
$XRP is the bank-facing rail. Yield, exchange liquidity, settlement. Stablecoin week is not only USDT versus USDC.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq Bitcoin has just surged upward, breaking through $78,000, while on the other side, the Trump team is negotiating compromises on the conflict of interest clauses in the CLARITY Act. With these dual variables intertwined, the crypto market is fluctuating back and forth, and many traders' sentiment is being repeatedly drained.
Putting aside the flood of trading calls and complex interpretations, the core logic boils down to two points.
First, the essence of the bill negotiations is the U.S. clarifying the regulatory jurisdiction boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. Once the jurisdiction division is finalized, the biggest institutional compliance barrier to capital inflow will be removed.
Second, a short-term price surge does not equate to complete risk elimination. In the policy game cycle, each round of ups and downs largely represents large funds leveraging regulatory expectation gaps to cleanse and reshuffle market liquidity.
At this critical juncture, avoid letting short-term candlestick fluctuations dictate your emotions. Rather than blindly chasing rallies or panicking on drops, it is more worthwhile to deeply analyze the finalized bill’s details on stablecoin yield rules and developer-related exemption clauses. The curtain on crypto industry compliance is slowly rising, and the real show is just beginning. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 The opening move sacrifices an entire rook on the 30th turn to pry open the h-file—this is the true nature of the current game.
Oracle's AI cloud revenue grew 121% year-over-year, with $664 billion in unfulfilled contracts buried deep on the board, and $30 billion in new contracts locked in just in the first quarter. Don't be intimidated by these numbers. True masters don't focus on single-step checks; they look at the piece structure—these contracts are not already secured material advantages but are pathway pawns lurking on the seventh rank, requiring more than three moves to realize. They consume your space and your time.
The cost is laid bare. Capital expenditure is $28.5 billion, free cash flow is hammered down to negative $5.4 billion, and an additional $20 billion in cash is raised through secondary offerings. Translated into chess terms: to maintain the offensive, he has redeployed the entire defensive force from the rear wing to the front line, leaving only a lone king guarding a semi-open file in the royal castle. This is textbook piece sacrifice for attack—but the premise of sacrificing pieces is that you have already calculated the checkmate route. If you haven't, it's just giving away material for nothing.
Ellison withdrew the planned reduction of up to $7.5 billion on September 12th; this move is not damage control but a deliberate long-term consideration. When a founder is willing to delay their cash-out window, it signals to the entire field: I am prepared to play this game into the endgame. The market understood this, so Oracle strengthened accordingly.
Yet on the same board, Adobe delivered better-than-expected results and raised guidance but fell immediately after the move. This is called a post-exchange decline—the theme no longer cheers for simple checks; players begin to scrutinize your pawn structure square by square: are there doubled pawns, isolated pawns, or irreparable weaknesses? The evaluation standard has shifted from "do you have the initiative" to "can your initiative be converted into material?"
This is the true turning point of the whole game. Previously, as long as you called check, the audience would stand; now, the referee inspects your royal castle with a magnifying glass for leaks. And the linked benchmark is always the most sensitive bishop on this board—it doesn't move in straight lines but only recognizes diagonal airflow. When the narrative of computing power and contracts shifts from growth to sustainability, the first step of hot money is never an attack but to extend a knight to probe for weaknesses and see if anyone is defending.
The real killer move is never written in the revenue headlines. It is written in whether you are willing to endure the current negative cash flow and widespread skepticism for a pathway pawn twenty moves later.
The moment Ellison withdrew the sell order, the piece had already crossed the river. #oracleaicloudup121%Good morning, brothers, just finished watching the market and took a moment to organize the short-term structures of several mainstream targets.
$BTC is currently around 79,200, oscillating repeatedly between 78,500 and 80,000. After failing to test the previous high near 82,000, the four-hour level's center of gravity has slightly shifted downward, but the daily chart still stands above the 30-day moving average, temporarily considered a strong consolidation. The first resistance above is at 81,200; only with a volume-backed close above this can we talk about challenging 82K again;
$ETH is currently around 2,580, showing a steadier trend than BTC but still hasn't formed an independent rally. The 2,500–2,520 range below is a repeatedly tested buying zone recently, with clear resistance at 2,640 above, and only above 2,720 is a true breakout;
$ZEC continues to follow its own rhythm. Recently, it surged from around 750 to 1,240, driven by ETF expectations combined with rotation in the privacy sector and short squeeze. It is now retracing and consolidating between 1,080 and 1,150, with the 1,020–1,050 range as the key support for this pullback, and a lot of trapped positions between 1,200 and 1,260 above. Its trend is not synchronized with the mainstream; when macro conditions tighten, it is more easily hit by profit-taking.
Overall, the macro sentiment is cautious, mainstream assets are being suppressed, and $ZEC, which has already rallied significantly, is more likely to realize profits.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO $SNDK went from +300U to -129U, I made a mistake with SanDisk this time
Today the storage sector took a collective hit. I checked my account and saw an unrealized loss of 129U, which felt pretty bad.
But honestly, the worst part isn’t this 129U now, it was the dip in early September. The grid profit peaked at over 300U, and I didn’t exit. I thought the inclusion in the S&P 100 hadn’t been realized yet, and the AI storage logic was still intact, so selling would mean missing out. Typical greed. Less than a week later, all the profits were wiped out, and I even lost over 100.
Why did it drop so hard today? The trigger was Kioxia CEO Hiroo Ota’s interview with Bloomberg on September 9, where he bluntly said, “Memory prices have risen enough,” and instructed the sales team not to significantly raise prices for data center customers. Once this statement came out, the market panicked—if even upstream manufacturers think prices have peaked, how long can downstream demand hold? Kioxia is SanDisk’s joint venture partner, so hearing this from them hit harder than anyone else.
But it’s not all bad news. SanDisk just signed a $1.5 billion revolving credit facility due in 2031, with JPMorgan Chase as the agent, so they have more cash on hand. Goldman Sachs also issued a research report on September 10, maintaining a $2200 target price, implying a 26% upside. The core logic is the AI inference demand explosion combined with long-term agreements locking in a large portion of shipments for fiscal years 2027 and 2028.
Back to the grid. The grid profit is still positive, 64U. The position size increased from 1.29 to 2.13 units because the lower the price falls, the more the bot buys at the bottom. The average entry price was ground down to 1654, the liquidation price is 966, the current price is 1543, so there’s nearly a $600 buffer, meaning liquidation is not a concern for me.
The biggest lesson this time is: the grid itself doesn’t have a take-profit mechanism; if you don’t manually stop it, all gains are just paper profits. Next time if it goes back above 1800, I will take some profits off the table first or set a take-profit line. A cooked duck can’t be allowed to fly away again. The 5% line is not just a decorative line; it is the main load-bearing pillar of the entire global asset structure, now emitting the brittle sound of stress cracking.
Having been a senior executive for thirty years, what I fear most is not the wind, but the foundation. Long-term yields are the foundation of the financial system: the 10-year yield is capped around 5%, and the 30-year yield is firmly held above 5.3%. This is not the floors shaking; this is the foundation settling. When the foundation moves, the internal forces of all upper components—equity, credit, leverage, valuation multiples—must be recalculated for deflection; no one can escape this. The Ministry of Finance’s 5.2 billion repurchase, at an 87% discount to the 6 billion cap, is like wrapping a carbon fiber layer around a column with insufficient reinforcement: the surface looks fine, but the internal rebar remains the same, and the load remains the same. Inflation is the primary permanent load, bond issuance is a continuously applied live load, and corporate financing demand is a cyclical wind vibration; combined, these three only cause the column to bend more under pressure.
5% has never been just a number; it is an anchoring point. Capital is either pulled back by it, re-anchored into the risk-free end support; or it continues to act as a ballast live load, layer by layer pressing down the floor slabs of risk assets. Two paths, with completely different structural outcomes.
Now look at that tokenized S&P exposure, $xSPY. It is a curtain wall system that never closes for 24 hours. The traditional market closes, which is equivalent to the main structure entering a static state; but it still endures global wind loads, and liquidity at 3 a.m. is as thin as a single pane of glass, making price discovery a stress concentration point. Without dampers or expansion joints, if one diagonal brace fails, the entire curtain wall will explode first.
When I review blueprints, I only trust three things: reinforcement, concrete grade, and node construction methods. The white paper is a rendering, the roadshow is a visual effect, the narrative is a light show. What truly determines how long this building can stand is whether the underlying architecture can withstand continuous loading, whether the development team has the ability to keep pouring concrete, and whether the ecosystem’s scalability has reserved deformation joints. A project that relies solely on concepts to build a tall building will be the first temporary structure to be dismantled once yields rise.
In my hands, the 5% line is the seismic fortification intensity boundary. Drawings reinforced according to old standards must now all be sent back to the verification desk for recalculation—no matter how good they look or how bright their model rooms are. #ustreasuryyieldsnear5%A: When funds move back and forth between public chains in the market, what signals do $SOL, $AVAX, and $SUI send?
B: SOL maintains high trading activity, AVAX's multiple subnets gain popularity, and SUI experiences a short-term pulse surge; rapid rotation among public chains indicates a battle for existing funds, with no large-scale inflow of new capital yet.
A: Seeing public chains rise one after another, can we heavily invest?
B: The rotation is fast and lacks sustainability, mostly involving the shuffling of existing funds, so don't chase every public chain that spikes.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#Anthropic拟赴纳斯达克IPO
#特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 What I think is truly worth paying attention to this week is not which coin has risen.
But two major upcoming events:
The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, and the key vote on the CLARITY Act.�
CoinDesk +1
One decides global liquidity,
The other determines the direction of US crypto regulation.
Lately, I increasingly feel that the market no longer simply looks at candlestick charts.
What really affects the market are capital and policies.
So recently when I look at hot topics, besides price, I also pay attention to:
• Whether ETF funds have changed;
• Whether stablecoins continue to grow;
• Whether on-chain transactions have increased in volume;
• Which sectors are starting to attract capital attention.
I always check these data first on Ave.ai before deciding whether a hot topic is worth continuous tracking.
News can create volatility, but data can verify trends.
What do you think will truly impact the market this week, the Federal Reserve or the CLARITY Act?AI Big Three Call for Slowing Down Cutting-Edge AI
Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI, the three giants, reached a rare consensus over the weekend, publicly calling for a slowdown in the iteration pace of cutting-edge super-large AI models. They are not calling for a halt in development but demand increased third-party safety assessments to allow time for model alignment. OpenAI simultaneously announced it would abandon its planned 2026 IPO to avoid the pressure of profitability post-listing that could force aggressive development.
Direct Market Impact
US stock computing power and storage sectors collectively came under pressure, with $SNDK, $MU, and $SKHYNIX all dropping sharply. The market has lowered its long-term expectations for computing power and storage demand for large model training.
Logic: The market previously priced in a "continuing AI arms race," but now expectations are being revised. Training hardware is the first to be hit by sentiment, while inference and security audit sectors are less affected.
Two Layers of Impact on the Crypto Market
1) Macro risk appetite: AI tech stocks' valuation cuts suppress Nasdaq in the short term, weakening risk asset sentiment including BTC and ETH; however, this event is an industry self-regulation initiative, not regulatory legislation.
2) Sector differentiation: AI narrative altcoins will face pressure; privacy sector tokens like $ZEC, which have regulatory game narratives, are less disturbed.
There are two voices in the market
- Bullish on safety: The risk of AI self-evolution is real, so proactively slowing down avoids black swan events.
- Skeptical voices: Some analysts believe the giants use safety as a pretext to raise industry barriers, suppressing smaller competitors and reducing their own cash burn pressure.
Personal market view, not investment advice $BTC $ETH Wow, this giant whale really mastered the art of "shorting against the trend."
BTC, ETH, and SOL—the three major coins—are all shorted together, with a combined position close to $1.8 billion, and the unrealized loss on the books is nearly $40 million!
The key is that this isn't a small test position; it's 5x full position short on BTC, 5x full position short on ETH, and SOL is even 10x full position short. Starting with BTC, 1,891.4 coins are shorted, with a position value of about $1.48 billion, an entry price of $72,307, and an unrealized loss of about $11.73 million currently. ETH is even more extreme, with 103,000 coins shorted, valued at about $258 million, an entry price of $2,285.78, and a loss on the books of $22.36 million.
SOL is shorted at 736,000 coins, valued at about $74.79 million, entry price $94.02, and currently an unrealized loss of about $5.59 million.
Together, the three positions have an unrealized loss of approximately $39.67 million.
But the most outrageous part is—this guy still shows no obvious intention to cut losses, and all positions are highly leveraged.
BTC's liquidation price is still far at $133,800, ETH's liquidation price is $3,509, and SOL's liquidation price is $240.29, so there is indeed some short-term safety margin.
I just want to see whether this round is the whale successfully laying a trap in advance or the market preparing to teach him a lesson.
With positions like these, would you dare to short? $BTC $ETH $SOL
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ $BTC A 25 bps rate move is already heavily priced in, so the decision itself may not create the shock many traders expect. The bigger question is what the Fed signals for the months ahead. Recent market pricing has pushed the probability of a September 25 bps move toward roughly 80%+, compared with much lower expectations several weeks ago. During that repricing, $BTC remained relatively resilient instead of collapsing. The US Dollar Index is another key piece of the puzzle. If the dollar fail$SEI wants parallel trading speed.
$SUI wants consumer apps.
$HYPE already has the book.
Fast L1s without a venue are demos. A venue without users is empty open interest.
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek
#AnthropicIPOOnNasdaq Market movement report, explained clearly at the first moment.
$T surged 18.0% in 24h, current price 0.00519 USDT. Such a low-priced, small market cap coin suddenly rising nearly 20% basically has one logic: capital accumulates at a low level and then quickly ignites, creating FOMO sentiment. Note the price is only around 0.005, so even a small buy order can trigger large fluctuations. This kind of movement looks exciting but usually has very poor depth, chasing it easily leads to being wiped out by a sudden spike. [My judgment: This is an emotional play, not a trend play. If you have no position, just watch and don't be the one catching the falling knife.]
$MTL rose 14.4% in 24h, current price 0.326 USDT. $MTL is a coin with some history, but its narrative has long cooled off. A sudden volume surge and rise is likely short-term funds making a rebound at a low level or some news expectations fermenting early. A 14% rise is not outrageous, but it depends on whether the volume can sustain. If it just spikes and falls back, that's a typical bull trap. [My judgment: $MTL is a bit more reliable than $T, but it’s also a quick in-and-out game, not suitable for mid-term holding. Take profits decisively.]
In summary: neither of these two are safe to hold overnight. $T is pure emotional gambling, $MTL is gambling on short-term continuation. If you don’t hold either, don’t get carried away by the gains; if you do hold, the gains are your signal to take profits.
Will you chase $T, $MTL, or just watch both without moving?Short-term (September–December 2026) → Mid-term (1–3 years) → Long-term (5+ years)" written, no hype calls, just explaining how market structure changes
How the cryptocurrency market will move in the future
1. Short-term: The remaining months of 2026 are a "wait for macro confirmation" consolidation market
Currently (mid-September 2026), Bitcoin is grinding between $76,000–$82,000, Ethereum is tugging around $2,300–$2,550, neither a bull frenzy nor a crash, it’s "institutions dollar-cost averaging, retail watching, macro pressure holding down."
1. Three things deciding the short-term
• Federal Reserve September meeting + US inflation: no rate cuts → risk asset valuations suppressed; real rate cuts/dovish signals → BTC/ETH get breakout momentum.
• Spot ETF fund flows: BTC ETFs have become the institutional sentiment barometer; ETH ETF flows fluctuate, indicating institutions are not fully convinced by the Ethereum narrative yet.
• US CLARITY / Stablecoin legislation progress: passing = compliant funds dare to enter; stalled = market continues to speculate on expectations.
2. Three short-term scenarios
• Consolidation bottom (highest probability): BTC $75,000–$85,000, total market cap $2.5–2.9 trillion, waiting for macro catalysts.
• Breakout bull: breaks above $82,000 + cooling inflation + continuous ETF inflows → target $85,000–$90,000, ETH follows up, rotation among large altcoins like XRP/SOL.
• Breakdown bear: falls below $75,000 + Fed hawkishness + geopolitical risks (Middle East/Red Sea) intensify → $70,000–$72,000, altcoins crash harder.
Conclusion: Short-term is not "blind rush," it’s macro trading watching interest rates, ETFs, and the dollar.
------
2. Mid-term: Crypto market is evolving from a "coin game" to "financial infrastructure"
In the next 1–3 years, the key is not which meme coin pumps 100x, but these four lines:
1. Bitcoin: from "digital gold" to "macro asset"
• Halving cycle influence declines, ETFs, pensions, corporate treasuries, and national reserves start pricing it.
• Volatility gradually decreases, increasingly resembling a "high-beta gold/risk asset hybrid."
• Long-term logic remains: scarcity, inflation hedge, partial decoupling from fiat credit, but short-term will be tightly suppressed by US Treasury yields.
2. Ethereum: from "smart contract platform" to "on-chain financial settlement layer"
• Staking yields + Layer 2 scaling + RWA settlements push it toward "on-chain government bonds/benchmark rate assets."
• Challenges are clear: L2s divert mainnet revenue, staking unlocks bring selling pressure, competing with high-performance chains like Solana for developers.
• Mid-term view: ETH has opportunities but must rely on real on-chain revenue, not just "bull market hype."
3. Stablecoins + RWA: the real big capital entry points
• Stablecoins have evolved from "crypto pocket change" to on-chain USD, cross-border payments, and B2B clearing tools.
• RWA (US Treasuries, money market funds, gold, receivables, stocks) will bring TradFi yields on-chain.
• In the future, institutions won’t buy shitcoins but "on-chain 4% US Treasury yields + 24/7 clearing + composable DeFi."
4. Altcoin divergence: survivors have real use cases, others go to zero
No more "Bitcoin up → whole market up" dumb bulls:
• With revenue: Base / Solana / Arbitrum / Aave / Chainlink types → ecosystem-dependent
• With payments: stablecoins, cross-border settlement, AI Agent payments → real cash flow
• Pure narrative: meme, unused L1s, fake RWA, packaged concepts → die directly in bear markets
------
3. Long-term: The crypto market 5 years from now
1. Regulatory framework solidifies
US, EU (MiCA), Hong Kong, Singapore will segment the market into:
• Commodities (BTC etc.)
• Securities (unregistered tokens)
• Payment stablecoins (1:1 reserves + audits)
• Institutional RWA (licensed issuance)
Non-compliant exchanges and projects will be largely cleaned out.
2. Traditional finance and on-chain finance converge
• Tokenization of US stocks, Treasuries, funds, gold
• Banks use private chains; public chains for settlement and transparent verification
• AI Agents manage funds, pay gas, perform arbitrage, run risk controls autonomously
3. Bitcoin’s position becomes even more stable
No matter how L2, AI, RWA evolve, BTC will be the "reserve layer," ETH/Solana the "compute layer," stablecoins the "blood," and RWA the "real asset interface."
4. Real risks are not "bear markets," but:
• USD stablecoins too strong → crypto becomes an extension of US monetary policy
• Overly strict regulation → innovation moves offshore
• AI + on-chain finance out of control → automatic liquidations, pump/dump, more erratic volatility
• Geopolitical conflicts (Middle East/Taiwan Strait/Red Sea) → oil prices and risk aversion drain crypto liquidity
------
4. Plain-language judgment for ordinary people
• Don’t treat crypto as a "get-rich-quick lottery," it’s becoming a highly volatile macro asset.
• The next cycle won’t be "everything flies," but:
BTC as foundation → ETH/major chains build ecosystems → stablecoins and RWA attract real money → only top altcoins survive.
• Is the bull market still here? Yes, but slower pace, heavier regulation, institutions in control.
• Retail advantages diminish; success depends on position management, avoiding high leverage, not chasing memes, and ignoring "100x groups."
------ SNDK remains in weak consolidation, with the storage sector collectively under pressure.
U.S. stock $BTC spot ETF has seen nearly $450 million net outflow for three consecutive days, weakening risk asset sentiment. Coupled with U.S. Treasury yields approaching 5%, funds tend to seek safety, growth tech stocks are generally under pressure, and the storage sector follows the pullback.
Next, focus on two major events: the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on September 16, which directly affects liquidity expectations; and the quarterly options expiration on September 25, which will amplify market volatility.
Key technical price levels
First resistance above: 1585; strong resistance: 1633 (previous high platform)
Core support below: 1505 (intraday low); strong support: 1460
Currently, the sector is in a high-level profit-taking phase, with weak rebound strength.
Waiting for news window, market volatility is likely to amplify, do not blindly bottom-fish, continuously track U.S. Treasury yields and fund flows. UNI is now oscillating near the high of 6.3, unable to go up or down.
Many people are starting to think:
"This is a buildup, about to break through 7!"
But I actually feel that the more it moves sideways at a high level without falling, the more likely it is to suddenly deliver a blow to the bulls. 📉
Currently, the key levels to watch are:
🔴 6.5–6.6: First resistance level
🔴 6.8–7.0: Strong resistance zone
🟢 6.0: First support
🟢 5.7–5.8: Critical support
If 6.5 can't be broken for a long time and instead it falls below 6.0, then be cautious.
Once 6.0 is lost,
5.8 → 5.7 could very likely be seen soon.
The most worrying are those chasing longs now:
Buying in at 6.3, dreaming of 7;
But instead of waiting for 7, 6 comes first. 😂
At this position, I actually dare not chase longs on UNI.
High-level oscillation does not necessarily mean a rise,
Sometimes it’s just waiting for the last batch of people to take the bags.
Many are shouting breakthrough at 7,
But even more might be shouting bottom at 5.7.
So for this wave, I’m siding with the bears first:
If 6.5 doesn’t break, lean bearish;
If 6.0 breaks, the bears might really take charge#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #霍尔木兹船只再遇袭，地区会谈推迟 $UNI $ETH Aptos$APT, as an independent L1 public chain, was developed by the original Meta Diem team. It's really something, yet the price is still stuck around 0.6, down 97% from its peak.
A/ APT unlocks over 11 million tokens every month without fail for early investors and the team, and these people are dumping their holdings.
B/ At the end of August, when the Switchboard oracle went down, some DeFi projects on Aptos directly collapsed; Ondo also withdrew the minting of USDY.
Fortunately,
1/ The Confidential APT privacy feature went live on the mainnet, and native USDC was integrated.
2/ In October, the four-year linear unlock for early investors expires, and it is generally expected that the annual selling pressure will be reduced by 60%. Additionally, the tokenomics were recently changed to deflationary (hard cap of 2.1 billion, full gas burn, and 210 million locked by the foundation).
I believe in entering early. Bitcoin ETFs are bleeding this month while ETH ETFs keep pulling in fresh capital. Is this a genuine shift in institutional preference, or just noise from one volatile week? $BTC A Fourth Straight Week for ETH This isn't ETH's first positive week. Spot Ether ETFs have now logged four consecutive weeks of net inflows, starting in mid-August. That prior run matters — this week's headline isn't an isolated fluke but a continuation. $ETH What's Behind the Split? Allocators have to decide where cap$UP Switched to the background and replied to a message, then came back, and it had already finished the job.
During the repeated fluctuations in the session, UP pulled sharply but the volume didn't match, it felt like a bull trap. I signaled a short at 0.3755, don't be fooled by that spike.
At 0.3483, +73.23% secured, this profit feels good.
Take profits when you should, first close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; the cost price is my protection level.
Being out of position is not a sin, opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait patiently for good news.
$ETH $SNDK Continue writing this script:
Saudi Arabia's price is most likely to include the Houthis in the entire plan.
Saudi Arabia calling Trump and meeting with the Central Command commander is probably aimed at first using US intelligence and target data to strike for two weeks, improving the ground situation before negotiations, rather than signing from a position of weakness right after Muhajir was lost and the pipeline stopped.
Ultimately, the likely outcome is that the US and Saudi Arabia first sign the formal defense commitments delayed for years, include a Houthi ceasefire clause in the arrangement, upgrade arms sales, and add a face-saving measure making Saudi Arabia co-chair of the regional security framework.
Putting these points together, the sequence over the next two to four weeks is roughly: Saudi Arabia attacks the Houthis, the US gives commitments, the Houthi clause is packaged into the plan, Seralei reopens at the end of the month or early October, the corridor is established, and oil prices peak around mid-October.⚠️ The negotiations haven't started yet, but the bomb has already dropped!
The Hormuz shipping conference originally scheduled to be held in Oman has been postponed. The official reason is to seek more consensus, but frankly, the parties couldn't reach an agreement. In the same sea area, a ship was attacked and caught fire, and the crew evacuated urgently.
$BTC is now consolidating around 77,000, while waiting for two major events to unfold: Middle East geopolitical disturbances + Federal Reserve decision.
This wave of geopolitical market action is like a drama series—talking about easing tensions verbally, but incidents keep happening at sea. SC crude oil main contract surged 11% in a single day, breaking above 900, setting a new listing high. Capital has already priced in the risk with real money.
Remember the previous statements saying the Iran issue would be resolved smoothly? Politicians speak weekly, but conflicts at sea happen daily.
The logic is clear for the crypto circle: oil prices remain high, inflation is hard to cool down, and the pressure for a Fed rate hike at the FOMC meeting early Thursday morning is unlikely to ease.
My trading plan remains unchanged: only place orders and operate with light positions, no blind chasing of spikes.
In geopolitical markets, patience is how you make money; impulsive entries are the easiest way to lose money.
What do you think—will the continued rise in oil prices force the Fed to hike rates aggressively? Let's discuss in the comments! #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #伊朗允许BTC与USDT外贸结算 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 I fully agree with Fan Fan's bottom-line thinking of "rather stay out than make a wrong move." With 40x leverage, the margin for error is extremely low. Here's how I control my position size and stop loss:
For position size, I adhere to the "psychological reverse engineering method." Although leverage is high, the position must be extremely small—so small that even if the price violently spikes within a single candlestick, I can still keep calm and steady breathing without panic. Before opening a position, I prepare to accept the outcome and never let tempting prices break my discipline.
For stop loss, both indicators and price must resonate before taking action; no position is opened without a confirmed signal. Once a position is opened, presetting the stop loss is ironclad. Both opening and closing positions follow established rules, never allowing losses to run unchecked. The essence of high leverage is not to chase huge profits but to use very small positions to maintain discipline—better to miss out than to make a mistake. 9/15 EVENING - PRE-FOMC SCAN Rate hike odds: 88% All 3 majors: Short covering, not trend $BTC 76390-77900 Wall 77100-80200 above ETF -463M 4D Hold 77100 or retest lows $ETH 2465-2530 Digesting supply ETF inflow but no break Lose 2430 = bulls gone $SOL 101.6-102 Big orders out, retail in Fail 102 = 100 again Thesis: Event hedge rally. Direction = CLARITY Tue + FOMC Thu No new trend. Just consolidation.#BTCSpotETF450MOutflow #OKX1MillionStrategist $BTC $ETH $ZEC The interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow night. Should holders of BTC and SOL bet on the direction in advance?
#Trump accepts the new ethics rules, CLARITY vote is approaching
The probability of a rate hike is over 80%. Many want to bet early and win big — but betting on direction and early positioning are two different things. Here's how to handle the two coins respectively.
#This week's FOMC announcement: will the rate hike happen?
$BTC is a cornerstone with deep liquidity. If you really want to participate, don't heavily bet on one side before the announcement. Use light positions with backup plans instead of betting on direction: have a plan for how to follow if it holds and how to exit if it breaks. Heavy betting is leaving the outcome to luck; $SOL is high beta, and the volatility at the announcement will be magnified several times. Betting right earns fast, betting wrong blows up faster, so it's even less suitable to bet on direction early. Wait for the result and clear direction before following, which is safer.
The interest rate decision is a "known unknown." Smart money doesn't bet on the outcome but prepares for both possibilities. Betting on direction is a game of odds and a long-term losing strategy. If the announcement matches your bet, even a light position profits and you won't regret it; if it goes the other way, those who didn't bet remain unscathed, while heavy bettors will need a long time to recover. What you want is to steadily follow after the announcement, not bet your entire fortune before it. Direction is to be waited for, not guessed.$ETH This key level keeps failing to break through, repeatedly rejected, but every time it drops, someone steps in to buy.
The trading volume is nearly 8 billion U, and the volume is increasing. The bulls' share has reached 73%, but the open interest has barely moved, which looks more like chips changing hands rather than fleeing.
Every time the bears push down, there are buyers below; it increasingly looks like sharpening knives.
Now just focus on that repeatedly rejected resistance above. Once it breaks through with volume, short sellers will be handing over their heads.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元 📌BTC volume has returned halfway, and no one caught the spike at 79896 on Monday.
Yesterday opened at 77385, highest 77423, lowest 76500, closed at 77132. Today opened at 77132, highest 78704, lowest 76395, current price around 78454. Volume is 358 million, stronger than the weekend, but still short of Friday's 602 million.
The range 78704–78067 above remains a resistance zone, with 79896 even heavier resistance further up. Below, first watch 76395, if broken easily look at 76001.
In the short term, first see if 78400 can hold. Don't chase if it can't hold at 78700. For those already holding, watch if 76395 support holds; if not, reduce positions and wait for volume to pick up in the European and American sessions before seeing if it can challenge 79896 again. $BTC In theory, a ceasefire is certainly not something Trump can decide unilaterally, but logically, if he offers enough concessions and benefits, he could unilaterally make that decision. However, in reality, Iran's demands make it difficult for him to make unilateral concessions.
Moreover, Trump's interests do not fully align with those of the Republican Party. From a party perspective, immediately stopping the war to cut losses and fully focus on the election is obviously the most advantageous. But for Trump personally, conceding defeat before the election means he alone bears 100% of the blame, whereas delaying until after the election means the responsibility is shared collectively.
The most likely plan now is to hold the Oman meeting as soon as possible, with Middle Eastern countries reluctantly accepting Iran's proposed passage plan while the U.S. tacitly approves.
But the biggest obstacle now is actually Saudi Arabia. On the surface, Saudi Arabia says the meeting should be postponed because their base was bombed, but in reality, they are still unwilling to give up their position as the leading Islamic power. After all, the Shia-Sunni conflict has lasted for thousands of years, and reconciliation has only lasted a few days. It is expected that the struggle for dominance will continue after the war.
So the next scenario might be the U.S. making certain promises to Saudi Arabia in exchange for concessions to hold the Oman meeting as soon as possible.75x long + 50x short… I thought I was hedging risk. Turns out, I was hedging myself out of the trade. 😭
Full position: $SNDK 75x long at 1636 → now 1539. Unrealized loss: 492U. Return: -445%.
$ZEC 50x short at 1114 → price rose to 1135. Another 214U gone.
Both margin ratios are stuck around 384%. No liquidation price showing, but watching that red number on a full-position account? Heart racing. 💀
I wanted a perfect hedge. The market gave me a 700U lesson instead.
#DailyOrbit $BTC
BTC might have a retracement based on the bottom chip dense area
The chart shows the recent three rounds of BTC performance at the beginning of bull markets, with the common point being a retracement to the chip dense area below during the early stage of the bull market
Currently, this area ranges from 69000 to 66000
If we consider a broader range, it is 72000 to 66000
If BTC price returns to this range again, I think it would be a good position to add more