Bitcoin Faces Risk of Pullback to $100K as Momentum Indicator Diverges Bearishly: Technical Analysis
This is a daily technical analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin's BTC bull run has stalled, with emerging technical signals pointing to a possible price pullback.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value traded near $108,000 at press time, probing the bullish trendline, characterizing the sharp rise from $75K to record highs over $110K, TradingView data show.
There has been little bullish action in the past 24 hours despite reports that the Trump family media company plans to raise $3b billion to buy cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin.
A key momentum indicator called the 30-day rate of change (ROC), which measures the percentage increase or decrease in bitcoin's price over the past month, has chalked out a "bearish divergence."
The bearish pattern happens when an asset's price rises, but momentum indicators like the 30-day rate of change (ROC) fail to confirm the same, hinting at potential weakness and price correction.
Although bitcoin remains within a bullish upward channel, the 30-day ROC is forming lower highs, signaling a bearish divergence and weakening momentum.
Additionally, the daily chart moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram, an indicator widely used to gauge trend strength and changes, has flipped negative, indicating a bearish shift in momentum.
All this means that BTC could dive out of the bullish ascending channel, potentially revisiting the major psychological resistance-turned-support at $100,000.
The broader outlook remains constructive, consistent with the recent golden cross of the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs).