#LongYields5%NewNormal
About LongYields5%NewNormal
Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
Populares
Mais recentes
LongYields5%NewNormal Publicações populares
Afixado
Gestão de ativos do JPMorgan: Os títulos do Tesouro dos EUA caíram para o "ponto de maior dor", é hora de comprar títulos do governo de longo prazo a preços baixos
Bob Michele, diretor de investimentos da JPMorgan Asset Management, afirmou que a sua equipa já começou a comprar obrigações de longo prazo dos EUA, Japão e Austrália, considerando que os preços atuais estão "realmente muito baratos" e que o mercado de obrigações atingiu um ponto crítico de "dor extrema".
Na quarta-feira, Michele disse numa entrevista à Bloomberg TV que múltiplos fatores positivos estão a convergir: desde o início da subida das taxas pelo Banco Central Europeu na semana passada,
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The Fed just hiked 25bp for the first time in over three years — and markets are already pricing another one in October at 55.4% 📈
The dot plot isn't subtle: most officials expect at least one more hike this year. This wasn't a one-and-done 👀
The inflation drivers keeping them hawkish: energy (Brent near $108), tariffs, and AI infrastructure spending that's injecting massive capex into the economy. All three persistent, none easy to solve with rate hikes alone 🫠
But here's the tension — growth, jobs, and earnings are all still resilient. The economy is absorbing higher rates better than most expected. Which raises the question: are stocks and BTC pricing in "one hike then pause," or genuinely comfortable with a prolonged higher-rate environment? 🤔
10-year yield above 5%. 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. These aren't small numbers 📉
First hike in three years, October odds already at 55% — is the market right to shrug this off, or is the real pain still ahead? 👇
#LongYields5%NewNormal The Fed hiked 25bps, but the long end barely blinked 👀
The 10-year briefly dipped toward 4.95% before returning near 5%, while the 30-year stayed above 5%.
What caught my attention is the curve. If short yields stabilize but long yields stay elevated, this may be structural, not just Fed policy.
AI capex, inflation risk and term premium are competing for capital.
For BTC and high-beta assets, 5% long yields could become the new hurdle.
🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT.
The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets.
#DailyOrbit
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
Dados mais recentes
O rendimento dos títulos do Tesouro dos EUA a 10 anos ultrapassou a barreira dos 5%, atingindo um máximo recente, com o rendimento sem risco a subir, o BTC a sofrer pressão simultaneamente, e os fundos de ETF spot a continuarem a sair.
Consenso do mercado
Os pessimistas acreditam que o aumento do rendimento dos títulos do Tesouro atrai capital, que será retirado de ativos de risco como as criptomoedas; outros pensam que o principal motivo é o excesso de emissão de dívida pelo governo dos EUA, que eleva as taxas de juro, sendo um choque de curto prazo que pode não manter-se elevado.
Análise da lógica subjacente
Os títulos do Tesouro são a âncora para a avaliação global de ativos; com o rendimento a ultrapassar os 5%, o custo de oportunidade de manter BTC aumenta. O capital prefere títulos do Tesouro com certeza, o apetite pelo risco diminui, o mercado cripto tende a sofrer pressão, e o foco futuro estará nas declarações da reunião do FOMC.
Opinião pessoal (apenas opinião pessoal, não constitui aconselhamento de investimento) #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates