#FedOctHikeOddsHit55%

#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% One hike was easy to price. A second is where things get interesting 👀 The Fed just raised rates 25bp to 3.75%-4.00%, while inflation remains elevated and economic activity is still described as solid. The latest projections also put the median year-end policy rate at 4.1%, keeping further tightening firmly in the conversation. What caught my attention is how well risk assets have absorbed the higher-rate narrative so far. If stocks and BTC can keep attracting capital while borrowing costs stay restrictive, that signals real resilience. But if valuations are quietly built around the assumption that September was a one-off, another hike could expose just how much optimism is already priced in. The next test isn't whether markets can survive high rates. It's whether they can survive rates staying high for longer than expected.

Why crypto is pumping The hike was already priced in, so the sell-off happened ahead of the print. Shorts got squeezed, oil cooled off, and altcoins led the move — especially ZEC, HYPE, and DeFi. This doesn’t look like fresh liquidity entering the market. Rates actually moved higher, while ETFs are still seeing outflows. $80K BTC remains the key level. For now, this looks more like a relief rally than a regime change. #FedOctHikeOddsHit55% #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #SECCFTCOnchainRules

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this week & $BTC barely flinched. Bitcoin traded around $76K after the decision, while ETH and several major altcoins also recovered as broader risk markets strengthened. That doesn't mean the market is suddenly risk-free. It just reminds me that price reactions aren't always as simple as: Bad news = Bitcoin dumps Sometimes the market has already priced the news in. Sometimes the bigger story is how price reacts after the event. #FedOctHikeOddsHit55%

The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points this week & $BTC barely flinched. Bitcoin traded around $76K after the decision, while ETH and several major altcoins also recovered as broader risk markets strengthened. That doesn't mean the market is suddenly risk-free. It just reminds me that price reactions aren't always as simple as: Bad news = Bitcoin dumps Sometimes the market has already priced the news in. Sometimes the bigger story is how price reacts after the event. #FedOctHikeOddsHit55%

$BTC x $ETH post-Fed 📊 Fed hiked 25bps. Unanimous. Warsh hawkish. Priced in. No panic dump. No melt-up. $BTC — around $75.8K. Wick $75.3K. $76K is still broken. Support: $75K. Lose it, and $73K is next. Bulls need $77.5K back. $80K is not in play. $ETH — around $2.38K. Range $2.37–$2.43 after the print. $2.45K is still resistance. $2.35K is the floor. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

🚨 BTC is trapped between bulls and bears… and the next breakout could turn into a liquidation party. The market is getting cautious again. 👀 October Fed rate-hike expectations have moved above 55%, bringing liquidity-tightening fears back into focus. Add the ongoing crypto/tax bill uncertainty, and traders have plenty of reasons to stay defensive. #DailyOrbit

🚨 MACRO × CRYPTO The Fed raised rates by 25 bps, while markets are still digesting a more hawkish policy outlook. Yet crypto is holding up. $BTC → ~$76K $ETH → ~$2.4K $SOL → ~$100 That makes the next few sessions important. Macro creates volatility. Price decides the trend.

The Fed just ended three years of stillness. First hike since July 2023. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25bps, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Chair Warsh said inflation is "too high and has been for too long." The market had largely priced it in, with hike odds near 93% by decision day after hot August inflation data helped flip expectations. But the hike itself is not the story. The dot plot is. The new median dot implies one more 25bps hike before year-end, putting December firmly in play. The updated projections: · PCE inflation is now seen at 3.7% for end-2026, up from 3.6% in June · Core PCE rose to 3.4%, and the Fed does not expect inflation back at 2% until 2029 · Unemployment was revised down to 4.1%, while 2026 GDP growth moved up to 2.3% · The longer-run fed funds rate projection rose to 3.2%, keeping higher-for-longer in the frame Behind the inflation problem is an energy shock tied to the Iran conflict, with oil back above $100 and diesel prices elevated. The White House wants lower rates. The Fed delivered the opposite. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly crossed 5% before the decision, then pulled back toward 4.96%. In H1 2026, US spot BTC ETFs saw about $5.4B in net outflows as BTC fell from the mid-$90K area in January to the low-$60K area in May. The CLARITY Act also failed its Senate cloture vote 49-50 one day before the Fed, pulling a key regulatory catalyst off the table. Bitcoin briefly popped after the announcement, then gave the move back. Nobody heard a Fed that thinks the job is finished. Warsh also avoided committing to a fixed path, keeping the next move data-dependent. The Q4 setup: rates higher, oil elevated, yields near 5%, ETF demand fragile and regulatory progress stalled. That is not an easy soft-landing setup. Which matters more for BTC into Q4: the dot plot, ETF flows, or regulatory uncertainty? #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23

🚩THE REAL EFFECT OF FED RATE HIKES ON CRYPTO $BTC $ETH $ZEC Despite being priced in, Fed rate hikes still impact crypto by tightening liquidity and driving capital away from high-risk assets. Immediate volatility stems from unexpected outcomes and the Fed's policy tone rather than the rate increase itself. Long-term, high rates raise capital costs, dampening investor sentiment and hindering new inflows. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #CryptoTaxAndBTCReserve #LongYields5%NewNormal 😍

CRYPTO MARKET HOLDS FIRM AS BTC RECLAIMS $76K AFTER FED HIKE $BTC $ETH Bitcoin climbed back above $76,000 and is holding the key $76,200 zone, showing resilience despite the Fed’s first 25 bps rate hike since 2023. ETH and ZEC are also participating in the steady recovery. #FedFirst25BpsHikeSince23 #BIP110ForkStalls #LongYields5%NewNormal