#LongYields5%NewNormal
About LongYields5%NewNormal
Long-end Treasury yields held after the Fed's Sept 16 25bps hike. The 10-year dipped to around 4.95% then returned to near 5%, the 2-year to around 4.73%, the 30-year above 5%. Walsh attributed the long-end to stronger growth, AI-driven capex, and geopolitics, but did not address fiscal deficits. If the 2-year stabilizes while the 10-year and 30-year hold above 5%, long-end pricing may reflect structural capital demand, inflation risk, and term premium, lifting the floor for high-beta assets.
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Gestión de activos de JPMorgan: Los bonos del Tesoro de EE. UU. han caído al "punto de mayor dolor", es hora de comprar bonos del gobierno a largo plazo
Bob Michele, director de inversiones de JPMorgan Asset Management, declaró que su equipo ha comenzado a comprar bonos a largo plazo de Estados Unidos, Japón y Australia, considerando que los precios actuales están "realmente demasiado baratos" y que el mercado de bonos ha alcanzado un punto crítico de "dolor extremo".
El miércoles, Michele dijo en una entrevista con Bloomberg TV que múltiples factores positivos se están alineando: desde el inicio de la subida de tasas del Banco Central Europeo l
#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The Fed just hiked 25bp for the first time in over three years — and markets are already pricing another one in October at 55.4% 📈
The dot plot isn't subtle: most officials expect at least one more hike this year. This wasn't a one-and-done 👀
The inflation drivers keeping them hawkish: energy (Brent near $108), tariffs, and AI infrastructure spending that's injecting massive capex into the economy. All three persistent, none easy to solve with rate hikes alone 🫠
But here's the tension — growth, jobs, and earnings are all still resilient. The economy is absorbing higher rates better than most expected. Which raises the question: are stocks and BTC pricing in "one hike then pause," or genuinely comfortable with a prolonged higher-rate environment? 🤔
10-year yield above 5%. 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. These aren't small numbers 📉
First hike in three years, October odds already at 55% — is the market right to shrug this off, or is the real pain still ahead? 👇
#LongYields5%NewNormal The Fed hiked 25bps, but the long end barely blinked 👀
The 10-year briefly dipped toward 4.95% before returning near 5%, while the 30-year stayed above 5%.
What caught my attention is the curve. If short yields stabilize but long yields stay elevated, this may be structural, not just Fed policy.
AI capex, inflation risk and term premium are competing for capital.
For BTC and high-beta assets, 5% long yields could become the new hurdle.
🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT.
The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007.
Why does this matter for crypto?
Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets.
#DailyOrbit
92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike.
The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets.
For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level.
US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down.
Pre-market stock trading insights:
▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54%
▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates
-year US Treasury yield breaks 5%
Latest data
The 10-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the 5% threshold, reaching a recent high. The risk-free yield has risen, putting pressure on BTC simultaneously, with continuous outflows from spot ETFs.
币圈阿飞-OKB
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
Datos más recientes
El rendimiento del bono del Tesoro estadounidense a 10 años ha superado el 5%, alcanzando un máximo de varios años. Los rendimientos libres de riesgo han aumentado, BTC está bajo presión al mismo tiempo y los fondos de ETF spot siguen saliendo fluyendo.
Consenso del mercado
El lado bajista cree que, a medida que los rendimientos del Tesoro estadounidense se vuelven más atractivos, los fondos se retirarán de activos de riesgo como las criptomonedas; otros piensan que el principal problema es que la emisión excesiva de bonos fiscales ha hecho subir los tipos de interés, y los choques de pulso a corto plazo pueden no mantenerse altos por mucho tiempo.
Analizar la lógica subyacente
Los bonos del Tesoro estadounidenses son un ancla global para la valoración de activos, los rendimientos superan el 5% y el coste de oportunidad de mantener BTC aumenta. Los fondos priorizarán los bonos del Tesoro de certeza, el apetito por riesgo está disminuyendo y el sector cripto es propenso a la presión. De ahora en adelante, el foco estará en los comunicados de las reuniones del FOMC.
Opiniones personales (solo opiniones personales, no consejos de inversión) #本周FOMC揭晓 ¿pueden materializarse subidas de tipos?
$BTC $ZEC $XAU
the more critical time period tonight.
The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue.
BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates