赴星
赴星
囤囤鼠，随缘开单，赚了就跑，亏了装死。
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Neither ISM nor JOLTS provided clear answers, yet the probability of a rate hike surged to 66%.
The August ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 54.6, below expectations but still in expansion territory. JOLTS job openings were 7.27 million, slightly below estimates but a bit higher than last month. Both sets of data gave no clear direction—the manufacturing sector is slowing, but the job market hasn’t collapsed.
Then the CME market directly pushed the September rate hike probability up to 66%, even higher than last Friday.
The logic isn’t complicated. Fed Governor Barr clearly stated that if inflation doesn’t cool down, a decisive rate hike is necessary; Wash echoed this tone at Jackson Hole. The market’s interpretation of the data is—economy hasn’t crashed, inflation persists, so the Fed must keep tightening.
Tomorrow at 8:30 PM is the Nonfarm Payrolls report, with market expectations of about 58,000 new jobs and a 4.1% unemployment rate. This is the last full employment data before the September FOMC meeting.
· Nonfarm below 50,000: rate hike expectations cool down, $BTC may rebound
· Nonfarm 80,000-100,000: rate hike probability continues to rise, BTC remains under pressure
· Nonfarm above 120,000: September hike basically locked in, below 75,000 might test again
Currently, 77,000 has been flat for three days; we’ll wait for the data to land before deciding.
Snapshot at Sep 03, 2026, 07:40
$ZEC and $TRUMP, old familiar faces on the square, got hit again
Today ZEC dropped 5%, TRUMP fell nearly 7%. Four days ago, they were trending on the square with people saying one was pulling up while the other was consolidating, but today they both got hit together.
TRUMP fell from around 2.9 to 2.2, down almost 7 points. When BTC surged to 80,000, it followed along, and when the Meme sector heated up, funds rushed in. But once the market corrected, the 2.5-3.0 range was where previous trapped positions concentrated, with profit-taking and stop-loss orders running together, so the drop was fast.
ZEC fell from 861 to 788, with clear signals that whales are exiting. Four days ago it was consolidating near 800, but today it smashed through support. Sell orders accounted for 64%, buy orders only 35%, funding rate at -1%, shorts are paying to hold positions. After the Grayscale ETF news landed, high-level profit-taking has been ongoing.
Four days ago, the square was still shouting long and short, but today both sides have quieted down considerably. The excitement was real, and the drop was definitely ruthless. Let's watch and see.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#非农前数据分化，9月加息预期升温
赴星
The square is full of posts about these two coins, $TRUMP is rallying, $ZEC is grinding.
After scrolling through the recommendations, seven or eight out of ten are about TRUMP and ZEC, it’s basically become a dedicated stage for these two coins.
TRUMP is quite strong today. It climbed steadily from around 2.48 to 2.9, rising a lot, and the Meme sector is benefiting. Plus, the Trump concept naturally attracts traffic, so funds are willing to bet.
However, some analyses say this kind of pump is highly speculative, and chasing at high levels can easily lead to being trapped. There are many bullish voices in the square, but also quite a few bearish ones, so the opinions are quite divided. Currently, around 2.9 is a short-term resistance level; if it can’t hold, it might pull back to about 2.7.
ZEC is more of a grind. It’s hovering around 800, yesterday it tried to break 817 but failed, now at 802, with only that small range up and down. Grayscale has submitted the fifth revision of the Zcash ETF filing, planning to list on NYSE Arca with the ticker ZCSH. The news is good, but the market has already priced it in.
ZEC’s supply is highly concentrated, with the top 100 addresses controlling 86.48% of the supply. When a big wallet moves, the price swings accordingly. Some in the square are calling for 1000, others say it will still drop, no one can say for sure.
The square is full of posts about these two 🖊️, both bulls and bears are shouting, it’s really lively, but the direction is really unclear.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——
#Employment data densely released, Wash's policy stance under scrutiny
The probability of a rate hike in September surged to 66%, $BTC reached 77,000, the test has just begun.
Woke up to find BTC already dropped to around 77,200. After Wash's speech, the probability of a September rate hike jumped from 35% to over 60%, and Ball added another push, now peaking at 66%. The 2-year US Treasury yield hit a one-month high, the dollar strengthened, and risk assets collectively came under pressure. Barclays even revised its forecast to predict one rate hike each in September and December.
There are still three key data releases this week: JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, and Friday's nonfarm payrolls. The market expects an increase of 50,000 to 80,000 jobs, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%. Wash has already set the market to "data-sensitive mode," where any number could trigger sharp volatility.
September is already called Rektember, one of the worst months historically, and this year it’s compounded by rate hike expectations and geopolitical risks. The next move for BTC depends on whether this week's employment data shows some favor.
Snapshot at Sep 02, 2026, 06:50
#苹果换帅：Ternus接任CEO
The Cook era officially ends, a new CEO takes office, and Apple stands at a crossroads.
On September 1, Cook officially stepped down as Apple's CEO and became the Executive Chairman of the Board, with John Ternus taking over. When Cook took over in 2011, Apple's market value was less than $350 billion; now it has reached $4.6 trillion. Since Cook took office, Apple's stock price has risen by 2275%, and the total return including dividends has reached 2736%, while the S&P 500 rose 769% over the same period.
Ternus has worked at Apple for 25 years, always responsible for hardware engineering, managing product lines including iPhone, Mac, iPad, AirPods, and even Vision Pro. He is a typical "hardware veteran," obsessing over details—finding 35 grooves when the specification required 25, and arguing on the spot.
He has taken over, but also inherited problems:
Apple is clearly behind in AI, not building data centers on a large scale like Microsoft and Google. Siri's AI capabilities still rely on Google support, and several AI executives have left for Meta. Ternus's first big test after taking office is the September 9 fall launch event, where the first foldable iPhone will likely debut.
For those holding Apple shares, the CEO change itself is not a reason to sell; historically, such internal smooth transitions have little impact on stock prices. What really determines the direction is whether the new CEO can find a new position for Apple in AI.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 $AAPL
Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 20:55
The big players are still buying, BTC and gold have started moving in sync.
Strategy paused for ten weeks and finally took action last week. Sold some stocks to raise $600 million, spent $370 million to buy 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318. Total holdings reached 845,000 BTC, total cost $63.7 billion, average price $75,412, currently still showing floating profit.
BitMine is even more aggressive, not stopping for 65 consecutive weeks, last week added 53,501 ETH, total holdings reached 5.9 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of total supply. Moreover, 86% is staked, generating $335 million in annual interest alone. One is hoarding BTC, the other is hoarding ETH, both moving at their own pace.
#Strategy与BitMine同步增持
The 90-day correlation between BTC and gold has reached 0.53, near historical highs. Previously it moved with the Nasdaq, now it moves with gold, as capital prices it as an "anti-devaluation" asset. Bloomberg analysts also say BTC's volatility structure is increasingly similar to gold. ETF funds are flowing in simultaneously, with gold ETFs and BTC ETFs both attracting money.
#BTC高位震荡，与黄金联动增强
Whether orders can turn into real cash. Broadcom takes over on Wednesday, the custom AI chip is the next test point. $AVGO $DELL
Big players are buying, macro is changing, earnings season is verifying. No rush to move at this position, wait until it lands.
#财报观察员：博通与戴尔接棒，AI回报再受检验
Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 16:37
Is Xiaomi at the bottom yet?
The market looks weak indeed, hovering around 3.5, corresponding to 27.6 HKD. It has dropped from 59.9, nearly halving—quite brutal.
Smartphone shipments fell 26.5% in Q2, but ASP hit 1351 yuan, a record high. They actively cut low-end models because storage chip prices surged too much to bear. Volume is down but prices are up; this is a deliberate adjustment, not a crash.
The car business is still burning cash; the Pengcheng SUV launches in September, and R&D spending keeps rising, with 9.2 billion yuan invested. No profits in the short term, but cash on hand is sufficient.
Research reports still give high target prices; institutions like Dongwu are still recommending buy. Management says the toughest times are almost over, and flagship phones will launch in the second half.
I think this level is the bottom area, but it will take time to bounce back. Let's wait for smartphone gross margin stabilization and Pengcheng delivery data before deciding. Cutting losses at this level isn't very cost-effective.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$XIAOMI
Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 16:16
$ZEC dual strategies have been running for 8 days, with the short position at 76% and the long position at 29%.
Two Martingale strategies for ZEC have been running for over a week. The short position with 7x leverage ran for 45 cycles, accumulating a profit of 30.77U, a return rate of 76.94%. The average opening price was 837.68, current price is around 847, and the arbitrage profit has already covered the floating loss, so the cost basis was established long ago. The take profit is set at 828, which is still $20 away from the current price, just waiting.
The long position with 5x leverage ran for 4 cycles, earning 11.57U, a return rate of 28.93%. The average opening price was 859.91, current price is 847, and only 2 out of 9 add-on opportunities have been used, so there is still plenty of ammo. The take profit is set at 895, leaving a $50 space. Both strategies run simultaneously, the short position capitalizes on pullbacks, the long position waits for a breakout, covering each other's risks.
On the market front, ZEC has risen from 500 to 870 in the past two weeks, experiencing short-term high-level oscillations, washing back and forth between 805-870. The open interest remains above 1.5 billion, leverage is still heavy, and the direction is not yet clear. The position profit buffer is thick enough, no rush to move, just wait for the take profit to trigger.
#玩转策略
#波动雷达：币种异动观察 /$ZEC
#ZEC现货ETF首日成交额1480万美元
Snapshot at Sep 01, 2026, 08:06
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
I will hold long-term, but only with $BTC, $ETH, and $OKB.
For long-term holding, I only choose assets with deep liquidity and solid fundamentals. BTC and ETH are consensus-level, while OKB is within the exchange ecosystem; the logic differs but all are solid.
I treat BTC as digital gold: fixed total supply, regulatory easing, institutional entry—long-term outlook is to outperform inflation without issue. ETH is the underlying asset of the entire public chain ecosystem, with increasing staking rates, tightening circulating supply, recovering on-chain transaction volume, and new developments at the application layer. OKB’s logic is a bit different—they have locked the supply side, and demand grows through the X Layer and ecosystem applications; the longer the time, the more apparent the scarcity.
I won’t hold small coins long-term. Liquidity is too shallow, narratives change too fast, making it hard to hold and sleep well. My long-term holdings are only these three; the rest of my positions are for short-term opportunities—take profits and run.
#闪迪铠侠拟投310亿美元，NAND供需重估
SanDisk Kioxia plans to invest $31 billion to expand production, the NAND supply and demand reassessment has begun early.
Just saw the news, SanDisk and Kioxia officially announced plans to invest $31 billion by 2032 to expand NAND flash production in Japan, targeting the Yokkaichi and Kitakami factories, mainly focusing on high-capacity flash for AI data centers.
This money is not spent in vain. Kioxia's performance has already surged, the NAND price increase cycle is very strong, AI inference has changed the demand structure, and the supply-demand gap can continue until 2027. Goldman Sachs is even more aggressive, saying the tight situation could last until 2028.
However, the market doesn't see it that way. When the news came out, SanDisk's stock price barely moved, still hovering between 1480-1500.
Because what everyone fears is: if you expand production, price increases will stop. The painful lessons from previous cycles are there. But this expansion timeline extends to 2029, so it doesn't create actual supply pressure in the short term, more like reserving a spot for the super cycle after 2027. Also, this money will likely come through joint ventures and government subsidies, not just SanDisk bearing it alone.
So, the long-term logic hasn't changed, the short-term market is still digesting. I'll watch first and wait for the direction to become clear.
Snapshot at Aug 30, 2026, 22:44
#BTC high-level tug-of-war between bulls and bears, gold linkage strengthens
$BTC and $XAU have started to become close allies.
I came across a Grayscale report showing that BTC has recently decoupled from the Nasdaq, instead moving closer to gold.
The 90-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from over 60% to 33%, while the correlation with gold has surged from near zero at the start of the year to over 50%. The head of Grayscale research said the driving force behind this is the return of "currency depreciation trades"—the US federal debt has just surpassed 40 trillion, long-term government bond yields are rising, and capital is starting to seek scarce assets for hedging outside of government bonds.
BTC has no central bank and a fixed total supply, making it increasingly like an "alternative gold" in this environment. Grayscale believes BTC is shifting from high-beta tech stocks to scarce macro assets. Gold is currently around 4470, BTC around 78400, and the correlation is still rising. Liquidity is thin over the weekend, the market lacks direction, so let's wait for the US stock market to open and see.
Snapshot at Aug 30, 2026, 20:09