Echo小鹿（来互动）
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"LAB Zero-Reset Crash: Faith Collapsed, Accounts Emptied"
LAB plummeted over 82% in one day, and I watched my account just puke... Today LAB gave me a complete zeroing crash, dropping straight from the high point down to around $1.13, with a single-day drop as high as 82%.\u2028I stared at the almost vertical big bearish candle on the K-line, really wanting to puke. A few days ago, when it was still high, everyone was shouting "new narrative is here" and "it's about to take off."\u2028But in the blink of an eye, it left countless people who rushed in stranded on the mountaintop.\u2028As an ordinary person, watching my account go to zero day by day, the feeling from excitement to despair is really damn painful. The most infuriating thing is that this kind of extreme market is often driven up by emotions and also smashed down by emotions.\u2028Trading competitions, leverage, FOMO... a bunch of people rush in thinking they've caught the wealth code, but when the big players or large funds start selling, they leave everyone completely wiped out. What I want to say now is:\u2028stop holding on stubbornly, brothers.\u2028Sometimes admitting defeat takes more courage than holding on.\u2028Watching your account turn green day by day, that sense of powerlessness and regret really can't be explained in a few words. $LAB is the best lesson this time:\u2028no matter how famous the name, how good the narrative, or how many events there are, once the chips are all sold and the emotions subside, what's left are just trapped retail investors.\u2028Those shouting "faith" and "long-termism" often just want you to buy at the top. I'm not gloating.\u2028I just feel heartbroken.\u2028Many people put their hopes, emotions, and fantasies about wealth all on a string of code.\u2028But reality gave the harshest lesson. Finally, I want to say:\u2028the biggest risk in crypto
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Last night was a double whammy.
The CLARITY crypto bill failed the Senate procedural vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold. The long-awaited legislative boost for the industry was directly dashed. Bitcoin $BTC plunged on the news, hitting as low as 74,910, down 5.3%, marking the lowest since June. Ethereum fared worse, dropping over 8% at one point. Across the market, 115,000 people were liquidated.
The macro side was also active:
WTI crude settled at $105.83 last night, up more than $4 in a day, with inflation pressure clearly visible; the 10-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, a new high for risk-free returns; the US dollar index at 99.47 continues to strengthen; the Federal Reserve will announce its decision tonight (2 AM Beijing time), with over a 92% chance of a 25bp rate hike.
Regulatory setbacks + record high interest rates + crude oil surge—these three heavy burdens together, it's no wonder Bitcoin is falling. Just two days ago, the high was 79,600; now it's down to 74,910, nearly $5,000 lost.
Now, 75,000 is the last psychological defense line. RSI is extremely oversold, so a technical rebound could happen anytime. The disappointment from CLARITY's failure is still brewing; tonight's Fed decision is the real judgment.
My view: If the rate hike is confirmed, the negative news is fully priced in and a V-shaped recovery is possible; if the dot plot hints at further hikes or CLARITY's sentiment continues to spread, 75,000 won't hold, and the next target is 72,000.
In this market, position size matters more than direction. Stay light and watch, don't hold on stubbornly.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Even Big Brother Maji can't hold on anymore.
In the past week, losses exceeded 5 million dollars, and in the last two days, there has been concentrated position reduction. Long positions in $BTC and $HYPE were directly liquidated, and $ETH was cut from a high level to only 20,000 coins. The total amount of position reduction exceeded 100 million, a significant move.
Big players are all stopping losses and exiting, indicating this downturn is not a joke. With macro pressure stacking and sentiment cooling, even those who held on before are starting to accept losses. When the market is cold, the higher the leverage, the harder it is.
This is how the market is now: everyone is an expert when prices rise, but even big players have to cut losses when prices fall. Position management is more important than direction judgment; this is said every time, but only at critical moments do people believe it.
Survive first, then talk about future opportunities.
#BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元
-56.04%
Snapshot at 22 Aug 2026, 07:01
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
US Treasury yields are fluctuating again at high levels.
The 10-year yield is close to 5%, and the 30-year yield remains above 5.3%. With such high expectations for rate hikes, the bond market is pricing them in early.
The impact on the market is very direct. As yields rise, funding costs increase, reducing the appeal of stocks and the crypto space. Growth stocks and tech stocks feel the pain first, and crypto, being a higher-risk asset, cannot remain unaffected. Bitcoin has been struggling to rebound recently, which is closely related to this environment.
Now we are just waiting for the Federal Reserve's stance. Rate hikes are almost certain; the key is the subsequent path. If it's a one-time move, the market can still digest it; if the dot plot continues to move higher, the pressure will increase.
Macro sets the direction; don't fight the trend. Keep positions light and wait to see the outcome. $BTC
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Is the US really going to treat BTC as a “national reserve”? The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act is advancing, but it is currently the easiest to be misinterpreted
#US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill Enters Committee Review When this news came out, many people's first reaction was probably: Is the US going to start buying $BTC? Hold on. The truly exciting part this time is not that the US government will go out tomorrow and buy with dollars, but that Bitcoin is gradually moving from being "crypto-friendly in Trump's words" to being incorporated into an official national asset framework. The core bill confirmed so far is H.R.8957, the "American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026." It has been submitted to the US House Financial Services Committee, and was included in the discussion scope during the committee's digital assets hearing in July. The committee also scheduled a full "bill markup meeting" on September 16. However, it should be clarified: the publicly available agenda for September 16 only states "review of multiple measures" and does not list H.R.8957 item by item, so the online claims that "the strategic BTC reserve bill will definitely be voted on tomorrow" cannot be confirmed at this time. But the bill itself contains quite a lot. The harshest provision: BTC in the national reserve cannot be sold for 20 years. H.R.8957 is preparing to have the US Treasury officially establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The initial BTC placed in it will mainly be those obtained by the US government through criminal and civil forfeiture. Here's the key point.
Planet Evening Market｜Before the Federal Reserve showdown, the crypto market shrinks first: BTC falls below 77,000, ETH is weaker, but ZEC surprisingly holds up well
I don't think there's any need to look for some mysterious negative news tonight; everyone is just waiting for Wash's showdown tomorrow, and the funds are a bit timid in advance. Now $BTC has already returned to around $76,400, down about 2.5% in 24 hours; ETH is even worse, dropping to around $2,428, down over 3%; ZEC is still relatively strong, around $1,125, down less than 1%. The external environment is indeed uncomfortable. The US 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 5%, crude oil is above $106, and the Middle East situation is still unsettled. Meanwhile, the Fed's September meeting has already started today, and the market generally expects a 25BP hike tomorrow. Money is getting more expensive, so who dares to blindly chase risky assets now? For BTC, I'm still watching $76,000. In previous macro negative events, funds have stepped in at this level. If tonight is just a low-volume grind down, I won't immediately call a crash; but if $76,000 is really broken down with volume, then be cautious that the market is trading ahead expecting "Wash to be more hawkish than expected." The old problem remains: if $80,000 can't be reclaimed, the bulls always lack that breath. $ETH is clearly weaker than BTC. After the CPI a few days ago, it even surged to 2,667, but now it has fallen back to the low 2,400s, which is quite painful. High-beta assets like ETH behave this way: they surge fastest when risk appetite is good, and are the first to give back when macro tightens. Now that 2,500 is lost, I want to see if around 2,400 can hold, rather than rushing to think about 3,000. $ZEC is somewhat interesting. While BTC and ETH have dropped by two or three points, it can still hold at 1
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
Evening review:
Overall still weak, volume average, both bulls and bears are waiting for tomorrow's Federal Reserve 📊
Big coin $BTC continues to hover around 77000, neither rising nor falling deeply. Macro pressure remains, with such high rate hike expectations, funds clearly have no intention to go all-in on the long side. The rebound lacks volume, indicating weak support 💰
Second coin $ETH follows the big market, with even smaller fluctuations than the big coin. ETH has lacked an independent trend recently; when the big coin is unstable, it’s even harder for ETH to perform 📌
Altcoins show clear divergence. $ZEC had a strong rally before, now it has pulled back somewhat but is more resistant to decline than many altcoins. The privacy narrative remains, and short-term funds have not fully withdrawn. Most other altcoins are relatively quiet, mostly drifting down with the big market’s slow decline 🎯
No fresh changes on the macro side. ADP is relatively strong, the probability of rate hikes remains high, and tomorrow’s meeting is the real indicator. Before the results come out, the market will likely maintain this grinding state 🔥
Don’t expect big moves in the short term. Keep positions light and wait for the meeting outcome to see the direction 🧭
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱
#CLARITY投票前分歧未解
-37.03%
Snapshot at 22 Aug 2026, 11:58
76,000 broke down 📉
Just took a glance, Bitcoin $BTC at 75,900, dropped from 79,600 to 75,696 in 24h, down nearly 4,000 dollars. RSI6 hit 8, Bollinger lower band directly broken — the technicals couldn’t look worse (╯﹏╰）
But this drop isn’t due to a single reason; it’s several mountains pressing down together:
First, the Fed meeting tomorrow night. The rate hike itself is already priced in, the real risk is what Powell says — is it a "one-time anti-inflation" or a "restart of the tightening cycle"? If it’s the latter, 75,000 won’t hold 🎯
Second, crude oil $BZ broke 100. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise again, making it hard for the Fed not to be hawkish.
Third, the 10-year US Treasury yield is approaching 5%. With such a high risk-free return, why would money stay in risky assets?
Fourth, this afternoon the Senate held a procedural vote on the CLARITY crypto bill, needing 60 votes to proceed to review. Passing would be a long-term positive, failing a short-term negative 📊
Another detail: 75,000-76,000 is the most concentrated area for leveraged longs; once broken, it triggers chain liquidations, causing heavier selling 📌
My view: RSI8 indicates short-term oversold, a bounce could happen anytime. The Fed meeting tomorrow night is the watershed — if rate hikes land and Powell doves out, after all the bad news, a V-shaped recovery is possible 🔥
At times like this, position size is more important than direction. Watch lightly, don’t hold hard.
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
#BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
Wash will most likely take action tomorrow: this time I'm betting on 25BP, but what might be truly scary is the sentence after the rate hike
This time I won't beat around the bush. I am betting on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25BP. And it's not a 50-50 chance; I currently give it about an 85%—90% probability. The market is even more aggressive than I am, with the latest pricing pushing the probability of a 25BP hike to over 90%; in the latest Reuters survey, 86 out of 101 economists expect a hike this time, raising the federal funds rate range from 3.50%—3.75% to 3.75%—4.00%. By the way, a reminder about the timing: the FOMC meeting is on September 15—16, and the Federal Reserve will announce its decision at 14:00 Eastern Time on September 16, with Chair Powell holding a press conference at 14:30. In Beijing/Singapore time, that is actually 2:00 AM and 2:30 AM on September 17. This meeting will still include economic forecasts and the dot plot, so the level of stimulus will not be low. Why do I now think Powell basically has no way out? A month ago, I wasn't so sure. At the July meeting, the Fed chose to hold steady; at that time, some members of the committee had already called for a 25BP hike, but Powell himself chose to wait. By the end of August at Jackson Hole, his tone clearly changed. He spoke very directly: the U.S. economy remains resilient, employment is basically at full employment, but inflation is still significantly above the 2% target. He even left a very key sentence—if we cannot be confident that underlying inflation is returning to target at a sufficiently fast pace, then the Fed still has work to do. And then? The data he waited for just kept coming in worse and worse. August
ADP again exceeded expectations 😑
Weekly employment increased by 16,250, much higher than the previous value. The data itself isn't explosive, but coming out at this point, it still leans towards "the labor market isn't that weak" 🎯
The rate hike expectations were already very high, and this stronger employment figure will only give hawks more confidence. The meeting tomorrow will most likely still be priced in as a rate hike 💰
Short-term, this isn't very friendly to risk assets. Bitcoin and tech stocks have been digesting pressure recently, and with this data, the rebound will be even harder to gain momentum 📌
Let's first see what the Fed says tomorrow. Data keeps coming one after another, but the real direction will still be decided by the meeting results ▽・x・▽
$BTC $BZ $ETH
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#沙特关键输油管道受损，或停运数周
#10年期美债收益率突破5%
BTC just lost 77,000, and the US Treasury bonds are adding more pressure. The yield on the US 30-year Treasury hit 5.40%, a new high since 2007. The Federal Reserve hasn't announced a decision yet, but the cost of borrowing long-term money has already started to rise 📈
As yields rise, bond prices fall. Even long-term Treasuries are being sold off. The market's concerns go beyond whether there will be a rate hike this time; they also worry about how long inflation will take to come down, how the fiscal deficit will be managed, and what level of yield future bonds will need to attract buyers. Reuters' report on September 15 linked this round of bond market sell-off to inflation and government debt worries 💰
The pressure is very direct when it spreads to tech stocks and the crypto space.
Tech companies face more expensive financing, and future profits discounted to today are worth less, so high-valuation stocks are more vulnerable. BTC has no corporate profits to discount but still competes for funds; bond yields are more attractive and leverage costs are higher, so fewer people may be willing to chase risky assets 🎯
However, the 30-year yield cannot be taken directly as a Fed rate hike signal. It also includes compensation for long-term inflation and bond-holding risks. Even if there is no hike this time, long-term bonds may not immediately stop falling.
So just waiting for a "bad news priced in" statement is not enough. Whether long-term bond yields can come down after the meeting is worth watching closely 👀
They say rate hikes are done, but borrowing costs keep rising, and the market still feels rough (╯﹏╰）
#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？
#AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱
#10年期美债收益率突破5%