Evening Market Report｜All Four Macro Signals Bearish, $BTC Defies Trend to Strengthen Independently, Super Central Bank Week Begins 🌍 1. Macro Environment US stock indices all closed lower, risk appetite weakened: S&P -0.48% at 7,619.98, Nasdaq -0.56% at 26,186.41, Dow -0.29% at 52,421.20. VIX surged over 8%, AI/semiconductor sectors led the decline with a "5% reality check." US 10Y Treasury yield hit the highest since October 2023, front-running FOMC. Spot gold $4,312 (+0.33%) slightly up as a safe haven; Dollar Index ~99.5 remains strong. 🛢️ 2. International Situation & Transmission Middle East escalation: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic declined, Saudi pipeline attacked, WTI crude $98.7 (+0.7%), Brent crude approaching $103. Explosions reported again in Kyiv, Ukraine, raising geopolitical risk premium. Japan 10Y government bond yield broke above 3%, fiscal concerns intensify; global long-term yields rise in unison. 🧭 Transmission chain: rising oil prices → inflation expectations → high interest rates → pressure on risk assets (war priced as "rate hikes" rather than "safe haven"). 📊 3. Crypto Multi-Timeframe Technicals 💰 BTC $77,790 (+0.16%｜intraday high $79,600 rejected, low $77,378) · Daily: moving averages bearish and tangled, MACD bearish (histogram -639 but converging upward), volume shrinking · 4H: bullish entanglement, above mid-band, MACD turned bullish; 1H/15m pullback bearish, 15m RSI 32 oversold 💰 ETH $2,505 (-0.31%｜high $2,615) · Daily: moving averages bullish alignment = strongest among three coins, RSI 60; weaker below 4H 💰 SOL $101.7 (+0.63%) · Daily bullish entanglement RSI 57; short-term pullback to mid-range 📉 4. Derivatives · Funding rates generally mild positive, no extremes: BTC mainstream exchanges +0.0048% to +0.006% (8h), short side still "collecting fees" · ETH funding rates mixed (some slightly negative -0.003%, some +0.0035%) · BTC total market OI ≈ $52.1B · 24h liquidations mainly short squeezes: ETH shorts $93.7M vs longs $28M, SOL shorts $6.9M — intraday spike at $79,600 triggered short squeeze 🎯 5. BTC Core Indicators · Spot premium -0.02% / -$15~17, institutional buying slightly tilted to selling · Fear & Greed Index 69 "Greed" (yesterday 57), sentiment heating but price sideways = divergence · DVOL implied volatility 38.85, still low (verified direct from Deribit) · Max Pain: 9/15, 9/16, 9/17, 9/18 all at $78,000, options pinning at $78K 🧭 6. Comprehensive Judgment (Wesley’s Four Macro Signals) ① US stock risk appetite: down (VIX +8%, AI sell-off) ② US bond yields: down (10Y highest since Oct 2023) ③ Oil/Inflation: down (Middle East escalation, oil up = inflation = hawkish) ④ Dollar: bearish bias (DXY 99.5 strong) 🧩 All four signals bearish → macro still supports downward pressure on crypto prices; but BTC defies macro to strengthen independently, Fear & Greed rises to greed, short thesis under pressure, short-term squeeze unresolved. Core tension = macro bearish vs price resilience. 👉 7. Today's Trading Suggestions · BTC shorts: rebound at $79,600 rejected, shallow trapped zone above average price; only add on break below $76,300, exit if firmly above $80K · Long leg priority ETH (strongest daily bullish alignment), avoid SOL (mid-range weak) · 9/16 (Wed) FOMC = binary event, ~90% rate hike probability vs White House pressure not to hike — reduce positions before data, avoid full exposure · Funding rates mild positive, short holding cost friendly (collecting fees) ⚠️ 8. Risk Events · 9/16 Wed FOMC rate decision (real turning point); 9/18 Thu BOE, 9/19 Fri BOJ — super central bank week · Middle East: Strait of Hormuz traffic decline + Saudi pipeline attack, oil price and geopolitical risk · 10Y approaching previous highs, Japanese bonds over 3%, global long-term yields resonance · AI bubble "5% reality check" continuation could drag risk assets down #BTC #ETH #SOL #FOMC

♾️ BlockInfinity Market Report · 9/14 Super Central Bank Week Preview｜$BTC Macro Divergence Independent Strength 【Latest Market Overview (California 9/14 Noon)】 🟢 BTC $79,062 (+2.21%) breaks above $79K, weekend low of $76.3K fully recovered 🟢 ETH $2,537 (+1.0%) 🟢 SOL $103.34 (+2.06%) Core today: BTC completely diverges from US stocks. Interest rates near 5%, strong dollar, US stocks down—these three major pressures fail to suppress price, indicating Wednesday's FOMC rate hike is fully priced in. 【1. Macro · Super Central Bank Week Opening】 🔥 Three major central banks announce this week: Wednesday 9/16 FOMC (rate hike probability ~90% priced in, but White House Hassett publicly pressures "no hike" = binary event) / Thursday Bank of England / Friday Bank of Japan. 🔴 US 10Y Treasury intraday hits 5.00% (first time in nearly three years), then retreats to 4.95%; DXY 99.50 (+0.38%) dollar continues strength. 🟡 China: August M2 YoY +7.5% / M1 +4.1%; central bank conducts 500 billion CNY 6M term reverse repos on 9/15. 💡 Interest rates extremely tight (yields near 5% + strong dollar), market enters wait-and-see before FOMC, the only decisive variable this week. 【2. International Situation · Stocks/Bonds/Geopolitics】 🔴 US stocks risk-off bias, widening at midday: Nasdaq down over 1%, S&P -0.8%, Dow -0.4%; VIX 16.8 (+6%). AI chip selloff—Nvidia -3.3% / Micron -6.7% / SK Hynix -7.1% / SanDisk -5.8% / Oracle -5.2% (rumored layoffs). Trigger = Anthropic, OpenAI, Musk all call to "slow down AI"; Bank of America BAC -5.7%, largest drop since April 2025. 🔴 European stocks closed lower: Germany DAX -0.43% / France CAC -0.76% / Euro Stoxx 50 -0.95% (FTSE bucked trend +0.48%). 🛢️ Oil rebounds after pullback: Brent $105.68 (+1.02%), WTI $101.39 (+1.34%). Supply remains tight—US SPR inventory down to 285 million barrels (lowest since 1982), Saudi east-west pipeline out for weeks after attack, Houthis attack Saudi airbase. 🟢 Russia-Ukraine tensions ease: Trump says Ukraine agreed not to target Russian energy assets (bearish for oil). 【3. Technicals · Multi-Timeframe (Closed Candles)】 🟠 BTC (early report price ~$78,430 / +1.69%, weekend low $76,323 recovered) • Monthly bearish (MACD bearish histogram expanding); weekly bullish structure intact, price above MA200. • Daily (close $78,537) above MA20 $78,554 line, MA50/100/200 all below = major bullish structure, but MACD bearish above zero line, histogram expanding, momentum still weak. • 4H RSI 61.8, KDJ overbought (J 102.8), bandwidth narrows to 2.0%⚠️ change imminent; 1H RSI 69 near overbought → short-term rebound to resistance. 🔵 ETH (~$2,503 / +0.41%) daily moving averages all bullish, RSI 60, strongest of three coins, but stuck at $2,500–2,534 resistance. 🟣 SOL (~$102 / +1.49%) daily above MA50/200 but below MA20, mid-range, weakest in rally. 📌 Top-down: major bullish trend intact, short-term rebound to resistance + overbought, price diverges from macro risk-off with independent strength. 【4. Derivatives】 💰 Funding rates (all mildly positive, no extremes): BTC +0.0046% / ETH +0.0037% / SOL +0.0084% (shorts pay fees). 📦 Open Interest: BTC $2.16B / ETH $1.58B / SOL $275M. 🇺🇸 Spot premium -0.03% / -$25 (slight discount, US institutional buying slightly weak). 🌡️ DVOL 37.62 (low volatility, compressed before FOMC); F&G 57 Greed (down slightly from 61 yesterday). 🎯 MaxPain: 9/15, 9/16 both $78,500 = magnet near current price, typical neutral pinning. 【5. BTC Core Judgment】 🟡 Key divergence: macro all risk-off (US stocks down / VIX up / 10Y near 5% / strong dollar), BTC independently strengthens, recovers weekend losses—not following safe-haven script. • Resistance above: $78,675 (4H/intraday high) → daily BOLL upper band $80,713. • Support below: $76,323 (weekend low) / daily 20-period low $75,866. • 4H bandwidth compressed to 2% + FOMC approaching = change energy buildup, direction decided Wednesday. Break and hold $80K = bulls control, lose $76,300 = fill gap down. 【6. Comprehensive Judgment】 🟡 Four macro signals 3 bearish 1 neutral (strong dollar ↑ bearish / yields near 5% ↑ bearish / risk appetite risk-off bearish / oil price softening = neutral bullish), overall still bearish; but price diverges with independent strength, bearish thesis squeezed by market "bad news fully priced" interpretation. • Short-term: rebound to resistance + multi-timeframe overbought, poor risk-reward to chase longs; short requires break confirmation, avoid topping in overbought zone. • Mid-term: major bullish trend intact (weekly/daily above MA200), all eyes on Wednesday FOMC outcome. 📌 Stance: pre-FOMC is a "risk reduction wait week," not a heavy bet week. 【7. Trading Suggestions】(levels for reference only, not personal positions) 🟠 BTC: range $76,300–$80,700, sell high buy low. • Short: only enter on volume break below $76,300 (daily 20-period low), stop loss $77,600, target $74,000; or short on rebound $79,900–$80,400 resistance, stop loss above $80,700. • Long: enter after holding above $80,000, stop loss $78,500. Avoid random entries in $78.5K overbought zone. 🔵 ETH: strongest of three coins, if long focus on ETH, light position above $2,460 support, follow through above $2,534; shorting ETH not recommended. 🟣 SOL: $99–$105 range, no edge, wait and see. ⚖️ Position size 30–40% recommended, 🔥 avoid full exposure before Wednesday FOMC. 【8. Risk Events】 🔴🔥 Wednesday 9/16 FOMC (rate hike ~90% priced in vs White House pressure no hike = binary conflict, biggest variable). 🔴 Thursday Bank of England / Friday Bank of Japan (central bank triple, volatility concentrated late week). 🟠 US 10Y near 5% + strong dollar, further rise would pressure risk assets. 🟠 Middle East: Saudi pipeline out for weeks + Houthis attack Saudi airbase, oil supply side could flare anytime (offset by Iran talks progress). 🟡 If price divergence with macro independent strength continues, indicates independent buying, bears beware. 💾 Storage chain tidbits: Kioxia considering US IPO to raise $10B; OpenAI acquires camera startup Glass Imaging. ♾️ BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley #BTC #ETH #Crypto

🏦 The Super Central Bank Week kicks off, and what’s truly unusual isn’t macroeconomics, but $BTC's "ignoring" of it. The 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.00% intraday (first time in nearly three years), DXY rose above 99.5, and US stocks went risk-off on Monday — this textbook combination should have crushed risk assets. But Bitcoin recovered directly from the weekend low of $76,300 and rose +1.7% against the trend on Monday to surpass $78,400. What does this mean? When the three bearish reasons—interest rates, the dollar, and the stock market—are all on the table, yet the price doesn’t fall, either the market has fully priced in the rate hike on Wednesday 9/16, or someone has already set the stage ahead of the data. ⚠️ The 9/16 FOMC is a binary event: ~90% chance of a rate hike priced in vs. White House pressure not to raise. Don’t treat this counter-trend strength as trend confirmation, nor rush to short — the real verdict comes Wednesday. Save your ammo 🧊

📊 BlockInfinity Evening Report · 9/13 (Eve of FOMC) 1️⃣ 🌍 Macro 🔴 Goldman Sachs reverses forecast: now expects 25bp rate hike at 9/16 FOMC (previously unchanged), citing market pricing-driven, not fundamentals 🔴 Last Friday's strong CPI pushed US Treasury yields higher, 10Y nearing 5%; USD strengthened USDJPY 154.05 (+0.3%) 🟡 FOMC highly divided: ~90% priced in rate hike vs White House Hassett pressure "no reason to hike" 2️⃣ 🗺️ International Situation 🔴 Strait of Hormuz weekend traffic dropped to single digits (well below 14 ships/10-day average), Middle East supply risk persists 🔴 Saudi continues attacks in Yemen, Iran Gulf tensions unresolved; WTI high around ~$97 🟡 Japanese government bond yields rise, BOJ rate hike expectations heat up (Friday BoJ); Swedish opposition wins parliamentary election 3️⃣ 📈 Technicals (Top-down · Closed candles · California time) BTC $77,626 (+0.50%) 🟡 1D: MACD bearish alignment (above zero line)/RSI54, tangled above MA30 🟢 4H: RSI40 oversold rebound, BOLL narrowing signals imminent breakout | 1H golden cross with volume RSI62, short-term focus raised to 77.6K ETH $2,512 (-0.27%) 🟡 1D: MACD bearish alignment/RSI59 above MA20 | 4H weak RSI45 | 1H golden cross RSI55 SOL $100.94 (-0.88%) (weakest of the three) 🔴 1D: MACD bearish alignment/RSI55 | 4H oversold RSI39 | 1H golden cross barely above $100 4️⃣ ⚙️ Derivatives 🟢 Funding rates mildly positive (BTC +0.0054% / ETH +0.0055%, shorts paying small premium); SOL slightly negative -0.0006% 🟡 Open Interest (single exchange) BTC $2.17B / ETH $1.60B / SOL $0.28B, no extremes 🟡 Low weekend liquidity, perpetual prices for reference only 5️⃣ ₿ BTC Core 🟡 Spot premium -$42 / -0.054% (slight discount, US demand soft) 🟡 F&G 57 Greed (cooling from 60 yesterday) 🟢 DVOL 37.92 (low volatility, options pricing calm) 🟡 MaxPain ~$77K (including FOMC expiry magnet) 6️⃣ 🧭 Overall Judgment Four macro signals remain bearish (strong USD / rates near 5% / Middle East supply risk / Goldman Sachs shifts to hike), but low weekend volatility shows no trend. Three-coin structure consistent: 1D bearish entanglement + 4H oversold + 1H short-term rebound = typical pre-FOMC "low-volatility magnet." Direction depends on 9/16 FOMC; do not mistake intraday rebounds for trend before then. 7️⃣ 🎯 Today's Trading Suggestions (levels · not positions) 🔵 BTC: range $76K–$78.3K. Short on rebound at $78K–$78.3K with stop loss above $79K; only add to shorts if break and close below $76K. Long only short-term, light near $76K, stop loss $75.3K 🔵 ETH: strongest of three, prioritize long ETH near $2,470, stop loss $2,400 🔵 SOL: weakest, avoid longs; shorts can follow BTC breakdown ⚠️ Avoid full positions before FOMC binary event, set stop loss wide enough for trend failure (BTC 4H ATR ~$436, do not tighten) 8️⃣ ⚠️ Risk Events 🔥 Wed 9/16 FOMC (rate hike ~90% priced vs White House pressure no hike, binary event) 📅 Thu BOE / Fri BOJ follow-up 🔴 Middle East Strait of Hormuz supply risk, oil prices 🟡 Korean Electric 25 trillion KRW prepaid fee rejected by Samsung/SK Hynix (storage capex disagreement) #BTC #ETH #SOL

Super Central Bank Week Kicks Off: Pre-FOMC Magnetic Oscillation, $BTC Anchored at $77K #BTC [Macro Environment] US stocks closed higher on Friday (9/11), "bad news fully priced in": S&P +0.9% breaking a four-day losing streak, VIX at 15.84 (-11%) indicating risk appetite recovery; weekend market closed, Dow futures at 52,594 (+0.96%) slightly up. However, 10Y US Treasury yield remains near 5% (4.96%) at a high level, and the dollar is strong—interest rates still suppress risk assets. This week’s core event = Super Central Bank Week: Wednesday 9/16 FOMC (Wednesday afternoon US West Coast), ~90% rate hike expectation vs White House signaling no hike, a binary event. [International Situation & Transmission] Middle East tensions rise again: Saudi pipeline disruption may cause 4% global oil supply loss; southern Saudi (Al-Humaysh Mushahet/Abha) attacked again (alarms + explosions, later cleared); Iranian commercial ship attacked causing 1 death and 3 injuries. Trump: Iran war will end after midterm elections, "oil prices will drop quickly"; Houthis say Bab el-Mandeb Strait navigation basically normal—supply disruption partially hedged. WTI crude $96.93 (+1.26%) surged; gold $4,347 (-0.25%), silver $64.40 (-0.4%), institutions (Tianfeng) continue bearish on precious metals, dollar/US Treasury yields strong suppressing. [Crypto Multi-Timeframe Technicals (Top-Down)] BTC $77,132 (-0.30%) | ETH $2,491 (-1.74%) | SOL $100.37 (-1.63%)—weekend low volatility, slight downward shift in center of gravity. BTC: 1D moving averages bearish tangled, MACD still bearish (histogram converging upward), RSI 54; 4H bearish RSI44 but MACD turning bullish; 1H/15m bullish tangled RSI 52/60 short-term stabilization. → Daily bearish, short-term hold above $76K needed. ETH: 1D moving averages bullish tangled RSI60 (strongest of three coins), but MACD still bearish; 4H/1H bearish pullback. → Relatively strongest, intraday retracement. SOL: 4H bearish RSI43, 1D bearish RSI55 (weakest of three coins); 15m has rebound. → Structurally weakest. [Derivatives] Funding rates: BTC mild positive (+0.006~0.007% per 8h) = longs pay shorts (short side collects); ETH/SOL slightly negative (~ -0.005%/-0.001%) = shorts slightly crowded; no extremes in the market. Open Interest: BTC $103.4B | ETH $64.5B | SOL $11.9B. 24h liquidations mainly longs: BTC $27.14M (longs 84%), ETH $52.49M (longs 85%), SOL $6.52M (longs 90%)—weekend slow decline washing out long floating positions. [BTC Core] Spot premium -$17.16 / -0.022% (institutional buying slightly weak but narrowing). Fear & Greed Index 60 (Greed cooling down, recent 67→70→57→62→60). DVOL 37.95 (low volatility range). Max Pain: 9/14~9/16 average $77,000 (including FOMC expiry), 9/18 $78,000—options magnet anchored at $77K. [Comprehensive Judgment (Four Macro Signals)] Dollar DXY strong → bearish for BTC. 10Y yield near 5% high → bearish for BTC. Oil price WTI $96.93 + Middle East supply risk → inflation/hike narrative, bearish BTC (but Trump’s call for lower oil + navigation recovery = downward pressure). Risk appetite: Friday US stock rebound bad news fully priced → bullish BTC. Four signals: 3 bearish, 1 bullish, macro still bearish but divergence grows; real decision point = 9/16 FOMC, hike vs White House pressure = binary, avoid all-in before event. [Today's Trading Suggestions] BTC: Range oscillation $76–78K, daily bearish + short-term stabilization, Max Pain $77K magnet; avoid chasing before FOMC, break below $76K triggers further bearish attack, hold above $78K cautiously bullish. ETH: Strongest of three coins (daily bullish), multi-leg exposure mainly ETH, avoid chasing SOL. SOL: Weakest (4H bearish), short on rebounds or wait, avoid counter-trend longs. Event week discipline: light positions/wide stops through FOMC, avoid full exposure on binary event; don’t be results-oriented. [Midday Update (12:07 PT)] Crypto market stabilized and rebounded early: BTC $77,371 (+0.30%, early report $77,132); ETH $2,513 (-0.30%, early report -1.74% → narrowed recovery, relatively strongest of three coins); SOL $101.3 (-0.34%, back above $100). Center of gravity slightly up from yesterday, no trend breakout, typical weekend low volatility magnet. Derivatives: BTC funding mild positive (~ +0.008~0.010%, short side collects); ETH funding slightly negative (shorts slightly crowded); SOL mild positive; no extremes. Spot premium -$23.80 / -0.031% (slightly weak, no panic). US stocks (Sunday closed): spot market closed, next trading session Monday. Perpetual/token markets low liquidity weekend reference only: QQQ perp 709 (-0.95%), storage chain weak (MU -3.3% / SNDK -3.1% / Hynix -4.7%), MSTR +0.5%. Weekend perpetual prone to spikes, not indicative of Monday open; Friday real market close up (S&P +0.9%) is effective anchor. Key news: US Energy Secretary Wright warns "don’t expect quick breakthrough in Hormuz," Iran planning shipping agreement with Gulf states; alternative routes supply about 10 million barrels/day, supply tight but not excessive. Saudi continues Yemen attacks. → WTI $96.95 (+1.01%). Trump: cancels Irish whiskey tariffs; reiterates $5,000 check plan; Monday call with Israeli PM on West Bank. Gold $4,360 (flat) / Silver $64.53 (-0.22%). [Risk Events & Outlook] Super Central Bank Week: Wednesday 9/16 FOMC decision + press conference (rate hike expectation ~90% vs White House Hassett "no reason to hike"); Thursday Bank of England, Friday Bank of Japan follow. Wednesday 9/16 US August retail sales; Tuesday NY Fed manufacturing index. Middle East: Saudi/Iran conflict + pipeline disruption, oil supply disturbance. White House vs Fed independence game continues. [Trading Discipline] ① Pre-FOMC = data vacuum + magnetic trading, both ends easily swept, avoid chasing. ② To express short: wait for rally to $79,500–80,000 resistance zone to scale in; to go long: wait for pullback to $76,000 support not broken to scale in. Let price reach ends first, don’t guess middle. ③ Avoid results-oriented full exposure holding through 9/16 binary event, save ammo.

🌙 BlockInfinity Evening Report · 2026-09-12: Weekend energy compression, wait for breakout, don't bet on direction 📊 1. Macro (US stock market closed over the weekend, benchmark = Friday 9/11 close) 🟢 S&P 7,656.98 (+0.9%) · Dow 52,573 (+1.0%) · Nasdaq 26,333 (+1.0%), collective rebound after four consecutive declines 🟢 VIX 15.84 (-11%, panic cooling = risk appetite warming) 🔴 10Y US Treasury 4.96% (still approaching 5%, tightening pricing not loosened) 🟡 August core CPI MoM +0.3% (above expectations) → but "bad news fully priced" stock market rebound 🌍 2. International Situation 🔴 Middle East escalation: More ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz; Saudi-Houthi ongoing clashes (129 airstrikes in 48h); Yemen conflict loses strategic locations for nine consecutive days 🔴 Oil price inflation chain: US diesel hits record $6.05/gallon; ECB's Kocher says high oil prices may force ECB to hike further 🟡 AI cooling signals: Altman says OpenAI will not IPO this year; Lagarde warns AI sector may pull back; Anthropic calls for AI slowdown; Oracle's Ellison cancels $7.5B sell-off 🟢 Gold ~$4,348 (safe haven slight rise) 📈 3. Technicals (closed candles, California time) 🟡 BTC: Daily bearish bias (price below MA20 78,698, MACD bearish histogram -1,440 but converging, RSI 55, KDJ oversold J14); 4H MACD bullish histogram +115; 1H BOLL bandwidth only 0.43% ⚠️ Extreme narrowing = imminent breakout. Range 76,800–78,000 🟢 ETH: Strongest! Daily bullish alignment above all moving averages RSI 64; 4H MACD bullish histogram +8.76 (but daily histogram turned negative -27 slight pullback) 🟡 SOL: Moderate, above MA50/100/200 only dipped below MA20, 4H neutral 🔧 4. Derivatives 🟡 Fees all mild positive with no extremes: BTC +0.0054% · ETH +0.010% · SOL +0.006% (bulls paying slightly) 🟢 BTC OI $2.12B; BTC fee +0.0099% 🔴 Spot premium -$38.72 / -0.05% (discount = spot weak) 🟡 F&G 61 Greed (yesterday 63 cooling); DVOL 37.11 (low volatility); MaxPain 9/13 ~$77.5K (near-month magnet $77K) ₿ 5. BTC Core Current price $77,238 (about flat in 24h), daily amplitude <1.5% = extremely narrow weekend. Daily structure still above MA50/100/200 (mid-long bullish) but price pressured below MA20 (short bearish). BOLL bandwidth shrunk to historic lows = energy compression, waiting for breakout to define direction. Upper boundary $78,000/$79,900, lower boundary $76,800/$75,866. 🧭 6. Comprehensive Judgment Weekend low volatility + energy compression, direction undecided but environment bearish: 9/16 FOMC hike ~90% priced top + 10Y near 5% + oil price inflation chain = macro bearish; short-term 1H/4H MACD bullish crossover + CPI bad news fully priced = fragile risk appetite warming. Before binary event, wait for breakout, don't bet on direction. 🎯 7. Today's Trading Suggestions 🟡 Mainly wait and see, no chasing orders in low weekend volatility, wait for BTC to break $76,800 or $78,000 🔴 Short: Light short on rebound $77,800–$78,200, stop loss $78,600 (4H invalidation), targets $76,000 / $75,000; logic = FOMC hawkish + 10Y near 5% 🟢 Long: Only ETH relatively strong, stand firm above $2,540 can lightly go long (stop loss $2,480), don't chase BTC ⚖️ Discipline: Light positions before 9/16 FOMC binary event, no full positions over weekend ⚠️ 8. Risk Events 🔥 9/16 (Wed) FOMC hike ~90% — this week's binary nuclear bomb, don't hold full positions hard 🛢️ Middle East/Hormuz navigation + diesel record → inflation → rate hike chain: war priced as rate hike not safe haven, gold and BTC may fall together 🤖 AI sector pullback risk (Lagarde/Anthropic warnings) transmission to tech stocks → risk assets 📉 10Y approaching 5%, tightening pricing may tighten again anytime $BTC #BTC #ETH (This report excludes personal positions, for research reference only, not investment advice)

On the day the CPI is released, the market first fell then rallied, with many interpreting it as "all bad news priced in, time to get in." But the real verdict point has never been the CPI; it's next Wednesday 9/16's FOMC— the probability of a rate hike still hovers around 90%, and the 10Y US Treasury yield is approaching 5%. This weekend's low volatility is digestion, not a trend. Don't mistake the rebound for a reversal; wait for the FOMC to set the direction. 🧊

♾️ BlockInfinity Research · FOMC Weekend Market: CPI Bad News Fully Priced In, Risk-On, but 9/16 FOMC Binary Event Looms 💰 Current Price (Weekend Low Volatility) 🔵 $BTC $77,385 (-0.53% / 24h), intraday pullback to $77,140 🔵 ETH $2,534 (-1.29%), relatively leading the decline, retracing to $2,521 🔵 SOL $102.04 (+0.14%), flat around ~$101.6 Weekend narrow range tug-of-war, ETH retraced part of Friday's gains, direction undecided. 🌍 Macro (Friday 9/11 US Stock Close) 🟢 S&P +0.9% → 7,656.98 (breaking four consecutive declines) 🟢 Dow +1.0% → 52,573.29 / Nasdaq +1.0% → 26,333.04 🟢 VIX 15.84 (-11%) panic sharply down = risk appetite warming 🔴 10Y US Treasury 4.96%, still close to 5%, tightening pricing not eased 🧩 August Core CPI MoM +0.3% (above expectations), but "bad news fully priced in" leads to collective US stock rebound. ⚔️ International Situation & Safe Haven 🛢️ WTI crude $96.62 (-3.9%), intraday surged to $100.8 then retreated 🔴 Saudi east-west pipeline attacked and shut Friday + US strikes on Iranian tanker, but oil price spike faded = safe haven premium not sustained ⚔️ Strait of Hormuz nearly closed; Iran-Oman understanding "does not mean reopening," two explosions near Qeshm Island; Bahrain refuses to meet Iran; BRICS calls for "maximum restraint" among Middle East countries 🟡 Gold $4,348 (+0.73%) 🔴 ECB Governing Councilor Köhler: High oil prices may force ECB to hike further 📊 Crypto Multi-Timeframe Technicals 🎯 BTC: Daily MA bearish entanglement, MACD histogram large negative (momentum bearish); 4H bearish entanglement but MACD rising; 1H/15m bullish entanglement, RSI neutral = short-term stabilization. Bulls need to hold above $78K. 🎯 ETH: Strongest! 1D multiple RSI64 / 4H multiple RSI60 / MACD rising, moving averages bullish alignment. 🎯 SOL: 1H bullish alignment, others mildly bullish entanglement RSI58 = moderately bullish. 📉 Derivatives 🔵 Funding rates mildly positive across market, no extremes — BTC +0.0052%/+0.0038%; ETH +0.0053%/+0.0048%; SOL +0.0016% (bulls paying slightly, no crowding); HYPE slightly negative 🔵 Open Interest: BTC $103.0B / ETH $64.3B / SOL $12.0B 💥 24h Liquidations: BTC $18.1M (bulls 93%) / ETH $35.7M (bulls $29.4M) / SOL $6.9M (bulls $6.4M) = post-Friday rebound pullback, mainly washing out long floating positions. 🎯 BTC Core Indicators 🔴 Spot premium -$17~-$18.75 / -0.022%~-0.024% (slight discount, institutions net sellers but narrowing) 🟡 Fear & Greed Index 62→63 (Greed cooling down, falling from 70) 🔵 DVOL volatility ~36.8 (low, market calm) 🎲 Options Max Pain: 9/13 $77.5K, 9/14~9/16 all $77K (near-month magnet around $77K, neutral) 🇺🇸 Stock Perpetuals (Weekend Spot Closed) 📈 TSLA +1% (announcing 10/1 event) / COIN +0.4% / MSTR -1.3% (following BTC weakness) / ORCL aftermarket +2% 📰 Key News 🟢 Oracle Ellison cancels up to $7.5B sell-down plan → ORCL aftermarket up over 2% (previous sell-down disclosure was a drag, cancellation = AI capex leader positive) 🟢 SpaceX Nasdaq 100 weight to rise from 1.28% to about 2.82%, passive funds buying billions (SPCX Pre-IPO direct positive) 🟡 Dalio/Altman/Musk rare joint call to slow AI development, introduce third-party evaluation (long-term AI regulation signal) 🧭 Summary Judgment From last week's "all bearish" to "divergence": CPI bad news fully priced + VIX sharply down = short-term risk-on warming; but 10Y near 5% + 9/16 (Wed) FOMC hike ~90% priced in looming. Weekend low volatility, more tug-of-war than trend, direction awaits FOMC decision. 🎯 Trading Advice ① Stay flat waiting for 9/16 breakout, best posture, don't itch to trade on weekend low volatility. ② If going long: ETH relatively strongest (multiple RSI64) suitable as main leg; BTC daily momentum bearish, bulls must hold $78K to turn strong, below $76,800 short-term weak. ③ If shorting/reopening shorts: wait for 9/16 FOMC hawkish confirmation or effective breakout, don't chase shorts on oversold rebounds (= short squeeze fuel), avoid results-oriented trading. ④ Don't fully load binary event position on 9/16, keep light position, wide stop loss, reserve FOMC ammo. ⚠️ Risk Events 🔥 9/16 (Wed) FOMC — hike ~90% priced, true binary decision point ⚔️ Middle East: Strait of Hormuz nearly closed, Saudi pipeline attacked, oil price may spike anytime 🔴 10Y near 5%, breaking 5% risks pressure on risk assets 🔴 ECB may follow with hikes #BTC #ETH #Crypto

♾️ BlockInfinity Market Evening Report · CPI Release Day, One Week Before FOMC $BTC #BTC 📊 Macro 🔴 US August Core CPI MoM +0.3% (above expected 0.2%, highest since May), September rate hike probability surges to ~90%, 10Y US Treasury nears 5% (highest in 2023); Huatai and multiple investment banks revise stance, stating September rate hike is now a "must-do". 🟢 But US stocks closed with a "bad news fully priced" rebound: S&P +0.86% at 7,657 / Nasdaq +0.96% at 26,333 / Dow +0.98% at 52,573 — core YoY in line + AI capital expenditure narrative withstands rate hike expectations. 🌍 International Situation 🔴 Middle East escalation: Houthi forces seize control of the Mandeb Strait (about 12% of global goods flow), passing ships sharply reduced to single digits; attacks on Saudi Arabia cause closure of east-west oil pipelines, Iran sends drones to ships in Hormuz; Saudi Arabia refrains from retaliation, US military prepares night operations. 🛢️ WTI falls back near $100 in the afternoon but supply risks remain; 🇷🇺 Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine strikes Russian Volga refinery, Putin warns European troop presence = war, IEA lowers Russian oil production forecast. 📈 Technicals (Closed K-line) 🟡 BTC daily MA20 below $78,687, above MA50/100/200, MACD positive but momentum weakening, bandwidth narrows to 5.4% = approaching turning point; 4H MACD negative RSI41 / 1H MACD negative RSI48 short-term weak. 🟢 ETH daily moving averages all bullish with RSI67 = strongest among three coins, 4H golden cross momentum rising; SOL daily below MA50/100, MACD negative = weakest leg. Top-down: monthly/weekly major trend bullish intact, daily oscillation + momentum weakening, short-term rebound then pullback. 🧮 Derivatives 🟡 Fees all mildly positive with no extremes (BTC +0.0034% / ETH +0.0081% / SOL +0.0080%) = no crowding. OI: BTC $2.10B / ETH $1.58B / SOL $0.28B; spot slight discount −$11.9 / −0.015%; DVOL 36.6 (down from earlier 37.95); 😊 F&G 63 Greed (down from 70 yesterday). 💰 BTC / ETH Core 🟡 BTC $77,258 (+0.64% 24h), narrow consolidation between $75.5K–$80K, daily below MA20 but major structure intact. 🟢 ETH $2,513 (+2.85%) remains strongest leg, leading intraday then slight pullback; SOL $101.8 (about +1.5%) follows weaker. 🧠 Comprehensive Judgment 🟡 "Bad news fully priced" rebound is a front-runner, not a reversal — CPI hawkishness priced in 90% rate hike, real binary decision point is next week 9/16 FOMC. Current crypto market follows US stocks stabilizing rebound, but momentum weakening + bandwidth narrowing = turning point near, direction unclear. Avoid heavy one-sided bets before event week. 🎯 Today's Trading Advice 🟡 BTC: mainly operate within $75.5K–$80K range, daily MA20 below indicates weakness but major trend intact; no chasing longs or shorts, if shorting wait for rebound resistance at $78,700–79,900, enter in batches, stop loss above $80,400, position ≤40%. 🟢 ETH is strongest leg, do not short against trend; SOL weakest, can short as relative weak leg (hedge ETH), but volatility high, avoid naked positions. 🔥 Core discipline: 9/16 FOMC rate hike 90% is binary event, now is rebound window, trade light and fast, avoid holding positions. ⚠️ Risk Events 🔥 Next Tuesday 9/16 FOMC (rate hike ~90%) = real decision point; ⚔️ Middle East Mandeb Strait / Hormuz supply chain risks; 🛢️ Oil price second surge concerns (sticky inflation); 🇷🇺 Russia-Ukraine refinery mutual strikes; 📊 US House votes next week on Russia sanctions bill. BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley

CPI Released, One Week Before FOMC: Market "Bad News Fully Priced In" Rebound, ETH Leads, Oil Prices Plunge ♾️ Macro · CPI Released 🔴 US August Core CPI MoM +0.3% (above expected 0.2%, highest since May); overall CPI MoM +0.4% / YoY +3.4% (both as expected); Core YoY +2.4% (lowest since April 2021). Gasoline +3.9% contributed about one-third of the increase. 🔴 Rate hike expectations surge: ~90% chance of rate hike next week (previously ~69% before CPI), two hikes fully priced in for this year. 🟢 But US stocks collectively opened higher after CPI (Dow +1% / S&P +0.8% / Nasdaq +0.8%) — core YoY as expected + "bad news fully priced in" + AI capital expenditure narrative supporting the market. 💡 Extremely hawkish on rates, yet the market chooses a risk-on interpretation, creating a rare divergence. 🌍 International Situation · Bond Market + Geopolitics 🔴 Global bond sell-off: 10Y US Treasury near 5% (at 4.98%, highest in 2023); German 2Y at 3.21% (highest since October 2023); G7 two-year yields rose about 25bp this week, largest weekly increase since the first week of the Iran war. 🛢️ Oil prices high: WTI broke $100 / Brent $101+; US retail diesel hit record highs. Middle East Houthi forces claim control of Bab el-Mandeb Strait, launching large-scale military operations against Saudi Arabia. ⚔️ Russia-Ukraine: Ukraine strikes large refinery in Volga region; Kremlin expresses willingness to negotiate and seek trilateral talks. 🟡 Precious metals: Gold fell below $4,300 after CPI then rebounded to $4,369; silver dropped over 5% this week. 📊 Technicals · Multi-timeframe (closed candles) 🟠 BTC (current price ~$77,900 / +0.9%) • Weekly bullish structure intact; daily (closed at $77,688) below MA20 $78,687, above MA50/100/200, MACD above zero line but bearish alignment, momentum weakening, bandwidth narrowed to 5.4% (approaching a turning point). • 4H bearish alignment RSI45; 1H bullish golden cross RSI51 → short-term rebound underway. 🔵 ETH (current price ~$2,573 / +5.4% leading) • Daily moving averages all bullish (above MA20/50/100/200) RSI67, strongest among three coins; 4H golden cross with volume confirms rebound, 1H bullish RSI62. 🟣 SOL (current price ~$102 / +2.3%) • Daily below MA20, MACD bearish alignment RSI57; 4H slightly bearish, 1H rebound → weakest follower. 📌 Top-down: major bullish trend intact, daily oscillating slightly strong with momentum weakening, short-term rebound, ETH independently strong. 📈 Derivatives 💰 Funding rates (8h, all mild positive without extremes): BTC +0.0037% / ETH +0.0051% / SOL +0.0041% — bulls slightly dominant but not crowded. 📦 Open Interest generally falling (deleveraging): BTC $47.3B (-0.5%/24h) / ETH $26.1B (-3.7%) / SOL $4.6B (-2.3%). 💥 24h Liquidations: BTC $32M (short $20.7M > long $11.3M, shorts liquidated) / ETH $47.8M (long $29.4M > short, longs first shaken) / SOL $4.1M (long $3.6M). 🇺🇸 Spot premium -$34.5 / -0.044% (discount, US buy-side weak). 🌡️ DVOL 37.95 (mild); F&G 56 neutral to greedy (down from 70 yesterday). 🎯 MaxPain: 9/14 $77K / 10/2 $78K = magnet near current price neutral; near-month PCR 1.3 slightly bullish protection. ₿ BTC Core View 🟡 CPI heat should have been bearish for risk assets, but market "bad news fully priced in" + AI narrative led BTC to rebound from lows, ETH leading +5.4%. • Resistance above: daily MA20 $78,687, 4H high $79,888. • Support below: $76,500 (4H low) / $75,500 (daily 20-period low). • Structure: daily bullish intact but momentum declining for three consecutive times, bandwidth very narrow, direction uncertain; short-term rebound vs high-rate pressure tug-of-war. 📌 Current price $77.9K stuck below daily MA20, rebound to $78,700-79,000 is bears' defense zone, breaking above turns short-term bullish repair. 🧭 Overall Judgment 🟡 Four macro signals diverge: rates (90%+ hike chance + 10Y near 5%), oil price ($100+) = bearish; risk appetite and US stocks opening higher = bullish. After CPI release, entering "bad news fully priced in rebound" window, but mid-term high-rate suppression unresolved. • Short term: mainly risk-on rebound, ETH strongest, SOL weakest, BTC oscillating slightly strong. • Mid term: next week 9/16 FOMC (90% chance of first hike in three years) + 10Y 5% threshold are bigger binary variables, rebound sustainability questionable. 💡 Now is a rebound trading window, not a trend start — quick in and out, avoid full position holding through FOMC. 🎯 Today's Trading Suggestions (reference points, not personal positions) 🟠 BTC: $77-78K range. Rebound to $78,700-79,000 can lightly short (4H bearish alignment), stop loss above $79,900; support $76,500 / $75,500, break below $75.5K turns trend bearish. 🔵 ETH: strongest of three, do not chase shorts. After breaking $2,560, target $2,667; short-term long on pullback above $2,480, break below $2,400 turns weak. 🟣 SOL: weakest. Hold above $102 target $105, break below $99.6 turns short-term short. ⚖️ Position discipline: CPI released but 9/16 FOMC is bigger event, chasing longs on rebound requires quick in and out, avoid full leverage; leave wide stops before high leverage events. ⚠️ Risk Events 🔥 Next week 9/16 FOMC: ~90% chance of rate hike, possibly first hike in three years = real decision point. 🔴 Tonight 22:00: US September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment + 1-year inflation expectations preliminary. 🔴 10Y US Treasury 5% threshold: break could trigger global risk-off second wave. 🛢️ Oil price $100+ sustained = inflation second wave; Middle East Bab el-Mandeb/Hormuz supply disruption risk. 📆 Tomorrow early 01:00: US oil rig count. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ☀️ Intraday Quick Update (12:0x PT · second phase after CPI release) 📊 Crypto Market (Perpetual/24h) 🟢 BTC $77,173 (+0.05%) slight pullback from earlier ~$760 🟢 ETH $2,543 (+3.22%) continues leading, relatively strongest leg 🟢 SOL $101.21 (+1.47%) 🟡 Morning rebound momentum slows at noon, three coins narrow pullback consolidation, ETH still strongest. 🇺🇸 US Stocks (Midday) 🟢 S&P +1.06% 7,672 | Nasdaq +1.31% 26,423 | Dow +0.95% 52,560 Four-day decline followed by collective rebound, trying to recover losses; tech/communications lead, healthcare lags. 🔴 ORCL −2.19% (giving back yesterday's gains) | SNDK −4.33% weak 🟢 AI power chain strong: VRT +3.7% / GEV +3.1%; INTC +2.0% / GOOGL +2.0% / AMZN +2.2% 🛢️ Key Driver: Oil Price Plunge 🟢 WTI $100.05 (−2.37%) | Brent $104.61 (−2.81%) sharp pullback from highs — main reason for midday risk appetite recovery (oil retreat → inflation concerns ease → yields fall). 📰 Key News 🔴 JPMorgan reverses: now expects two hikes in September + December; Fed hike probability still ~90% 🔴 Goldman Sachs: if hike expectations continue rising, gold may see sharper correction; but maintains $4,900 target by end 2026 ⚔️ Middle East unrest: Iran drones attack ships in Hormuz, declares "state of war"; Saudi east-west oil pipeline attacked and temporarily shut; Saudi-Houthi conflict caused 82 casualties 🟡 Gold $4,351 (+0.63%) / Silver $64.35 (+1.0%) 📉 Derivatives 🟡 Funding rates all mild positive, no extremes; spot premium −$27/−0.035% slight discount; OI continues deleveraging. 🎯 Intraday Reminder 🔥 Next week 9/16 FOMC hike ~90% fully priced — today's "bad news fully priced in" rebound is front-running, don't mistake rebound for trend reversal and chase full longs. Oil price is key variable: Middle East escalation, oil price surge again, risk appetite recovery will be interrupted. BTC rebound failing to hold $78,800 (daily MA20) remains under pressure; ETH relatively strong, pullback above $2,480 structure bullish. —— BlockInfinity Research · Powered By Wesley