$SNDK this stock, I really got educated back and forth by it. Previously, shorting around 1688 got reversed, this time I switched direction, went long at 1740, but ended up hanging on the tree again. Now it's at 1684, with a low touching 1674. I have to say, SNDK's ability to kill both longs and shorts recently is really strong. Even if you pick the right direction, you might not make money; if your entry point is a bit off, you immediately start paying tuition. But this time, I'm not in a hurry to cut losses. From the 15-minute chart, there is temporary support around 1674, and the price is also approaching the BOLL middle band at 1686 again. If the short-term can reclaim 1695, the next targets are 1705-1720, and to truly get back to 1740, these resistance levels need to be overcome first. Conversely, if 1674 breaks down again with volume, then I can't get emotionally attached to the 1740 position anymore. My biggest feeling now is: when trading such high volatility stocks, the easiest mistake is not picking the wrong direction, but letting the previous trade affect the next one. Just because you lost on a short doesn't mean the next long will win. Whether this long at 1740 can help me break even, I won't guess for now; the market will give the answer itself. For this wave of $SNDK, is there anyone else getting cut repeatedly by it like me?

Yesterday I was still hesitating whether to short $IOST, and today it gave the answer directly. It dropped all the way from 0.0021997 to 0.00093. The faster it rises, the harsher it falls. Looking back now, the real danger is not the high price itself, but the sudden surge in trading volume after a sharp rise while the price fails to hold up. This is often more alarming than just a few points drop. So I increasingly feel that when trading altcoins, you can't just look at "how much more it can rise," you also have to see if there is support after the rise. This wave of IOST is a typical case of emotional acceleration; when it's hot, everyone thinks it can still surge, but when it weakens, you realize there aren't that many buyers to take over. Tonight at 8:30, the CPI is coming again. The real variable in the market now is not whether the data looks good or not, but whether it exceeds expectations. Yesterday's PPI has already shaken the expectations for rate cuts. If the CPI adds pressure, once BTC76000 breaks down, altcoins might continue to be drained. Tonight, I’m only watching two things: whether the CPI exceeds expectations or not, and whether $BTC 76000 and $ETH 2380 can hold. This time with IOST, did you short early or got stuck at the high again?

#OKX预言家：Come to the planet to play predictions On September 12, esports HLE vs T1, the current odds are about 60:40, with the market clearly favoring HLE. But I actually don't want to go all in. The reason is simple: the two teams just played a BO5 on September 2, with HLE winning 3:2 over T1. This time the market giving HLE the advantage has largely already priced in the expected outcome of this match. My approach: 🟡 HLE: 60% position ⚫ T1: 40% position But what really makes me hesitate is that T1 just took down DK 3:1, so their form isn't bad. So for this match, I'm more focused on "who can drag the BO5 into the decider." If HLE starts strong, the 60% odds might not have much room left; conversely, if T1 takes the first game, market sentiment could quickly reverse. My prediction: HLE 3:2 T1. Not going all in, keeping some bullets in reserve. The most interesting thing about esports is: when the odds seem most certain, that's often when it's easiest to get carried away.

$BTC Last night’s trade was relatively comfortable. Bought long at 77680, took profit near 79000, almost didn’t get fully filled, but it was enough. Interestingly, after pushing to 79000, it didn’t continue upward, instead it dropped all the way back to around 77600. At this range, I’m not in a hurry to guess the direction. 79000 above is resistance, 77600 below is support. My understanding is: this kind of position easily gets people hit from both sides; chasing the rally risks buying into resistance, chasing the drop might just hit the support. So from now on, I’m only watching one thing—whether 77600 can hold. If it holds, the range is still playable; if it doesn’t, don’t force it, wait for the next support level. Brothers, $IOST has been quite strong these past two days, Is it a good time to chase long now? 🙃

$BTC long position hasn't closed yet. Yesterday I placed a long at 77668, just got filled, now hovering around 78600. The most frustrating part is, the take profit at 79000 missed by just a few points, it stubbornly didn't trigger 😂 But now I'm actually not in a hurry to move. The support around 77500 is currently holding, and the price has climbed back above 78500. However, there's a detail here: the volume and strength of the rebound aren't particularly strong. So my current thought is simple: First, see if 79000 can truly hold. If it can't hold, this looks more like a correction after a drop rather than a reversal. If it really breaks below 77500 again, I won't stubbornly hold this position; I'll wait for the next support. The biggest fear in trading isn't being wrong, but fighting the market when you're wrong. Whether this trade can reach 79,000, I'll leave it to the market.

$BTC caught this wave. Yesterday I placed a long order at 77688, which just got filled. Now BTC is hovering around 77800, and I'm not in a hurry to celebrate "bottom fishing"—at this level, the biggest fear is catching a downward continuation. I'm mainly watching two levels now: whether 77800 can hold, and whether after a rebound it can climb back above 78400. If 77800 holds steady, I'll look for a rebound recovery; only if it can climb back above 78400 will there be confidence to push higher. But if it can't even hold this level, then this long position has to be considered a mistake, and there is still room below to find support. My view is simple: it's not about guessing the bottom now, but about seeing if the market is willing to give this level a rebound opportunity. I've already entered the position; now it's a matter of whether it will cooperate.

$SNDK Seeing the trend, I’m honestly a bit confused. I opened a short position at 1688, originally thinking there would be a pullback after a rally, but the market didn’t give any face and kept pushing up, reaching as high as around 1800. The most frustrating part is that I clearly felt my logic wasn’t that far off, but the market bluntly told me: “Whether your logic is right or not has nothing to do with whether you can make money now.” This trade made me review everything again: My biggest mistake wasn’t being bearish. It was that after seeing the price had already risen quite a bit, I subconsciously thought, “It’s gone up so much, it should be about enough.” But the market never has to fall just because you think it’s expensive. Especially in a strong sector suddenly stimulated by news and with concentrated capital inflows, technical levels can sometimes be the easiest thing to fail. This is also something I care more and more about now: The most dangerous thing about shorting isn’t being wrong about the direction, but proving yourself right too early in a strong trend. If a stock is strengthening, and fundamentals, news, and capital flows are all resonating, simply shorting because “it’s gone up too much” is basically betting your position on when the market will tire. And the market never notifies you in advance when it will tire. The lesson SanDisk gave me this time is simple: High prices can keep rising, and strength can be stronger than you imagine. What’s really worth waiting for isn’t the price in your mind that “should pull back,” but waiting until the market itself shows signs of weakening before considering whether shorting is necessary. I won’t be stubborn about this trade; if I’m wrong, I’m wrong.

$BTC has again touched around 80,000, but I actually want to wait for a short at 80,300. Currently, BTC is around 79,800, just pulled back from the low point; the market isn't actually weak. But I think the real concern isn't whether it will drop now, but whether there is enough relay capital above 80,300. From the 4-hour chart, the area around 80,000 has been tugged repeatedly, and the previous high at 80,550 hasn't truly held. The Bollinger middle band is near 80,000, and the upper band is roughly at 80,350, indicating short-term upward pressure is already being met. So my thinking is simple: If it continues to surge and even touches 81,000, I will actually focus on shorting opportunities. Not because I think BTC will crash immediately, but if this round lacks new news stimuli and the price is pushed up solely by sentiment, 81,000 can easily become a position that "looks strong but actually has heavy selling pressure." Of course, if 81,000 breaks out with volume and holds, I will admit I'm wrong and won't fight the market. The worst thing in trading isn't being wrong, but trying to prove you're right after being wrong.

Family, woke up and got stuck again 😂 Last night, I don’t know what went wrong, I casually placed a short order on $ETH at 2485, and when I woke up, the market didn’t follow the script, but the order was still there quietly. Now with ETH’s trend, I actually find it a bit interesting. Friday’s non-farm payrolls crushed the market’s rate cut expectations, and over the weekend, funds didn’t continue to dump but started to slowly recover. This shows the bears aren’t that determined now; the market seems more like it’s waiting for the next shock. So I’m not in a hurry to cut this position for now. If it stabilizes again around 2485, the short logic needs to be re-examined; if the rebound is weak and it falls back below key support, that’s when the bears really feel comfortable. The worst thing in trading isn’t getting stuck, it’s finding excuses for your mistakes after getting stuck. This time I admit half the mistake, and leave the rest to the market. Did you guys ever have the experience of "waking up and realizing you opened a position again" over the weekend? 😂

Last night I got stuck shorting SanDisk, but it made me realize an issue. After Trump's speech last night, the market clearly went risk-on, and the storage sector was directly pulled up by funds. I shorted $SNDK at 1688, and now the price is still around 1730, so this short position is temporarily stuck. Honestly, from a short-term perspective, this trade doesn't feel comfortable. But I'm not in a hurry to cut losses now. The reason is simple: a strong rise doesn't mean the upward logic is over, but it also doesn't mean shorting is wrong. From the chart, the biggest change for SanDisk this time isn't how much it rose, but that after a volume breakout, the price started to consolidate at a high level. This indicates that funds haven't obviously withdrawn yet. So what really needs to be observed now isn't "will it fall tomorrow," but: Is the high-level consolidation a buildup of strength, or is it profit-taking? If volume continues to break through around 1745, I'll admit the market is stronger than I thought and the short logic needs reevaluation. But if it repeatedly fails to break higher at the top and volume starts to decline, I'll pay more attention to the pullback opportunity after this rally. This trade also reminds me of a problem: The most dangerous thing about shorting strong stocks isn't being wrong on direction, but being too early. The market won't immediately fall just because you think "it's risen too much." For now, I'll hold this position and observe. If you were me, would you choose to hold on and wait for a pullback, or admit the mistake and exit immediately?