Welcome everyone! Feel free to ask questions, discuss the market, and chat here. I will post some real-time news in the group, such as earnings reports, non-farm payroll data, etc. $BTC I hate you, hurry up and go up, is it possible that the rate hikes are just a smokescreen? #PPI、CPI released consecutively, the Federal Reserve faces two critical days

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The CLARITY Act did not pass, with a 47-47 tie, not even reaching the 60-vote threshold. When I saw this number, I sat in my chair stunned for a while. Not because it was unexpected, but because it was frustrating. This bill passed the House with 294 votes, advanced through the Senate Banking Committee 15-9, took over a year, and finally got stuck on the question of whether government officials can profit from crypto. The market reacted quickly. $BTC directly fell below 75,000, Circle dropped over 12%, Coinbase dropped over 11%. My account experienced another round of drawdown; that long position at 80,619 is now showing even more unrealized losses. Right now, there’s only one thing on my mind: tonight’s early morning FOMC. The probability of a rate hike has already climbed above 87%, with Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both turning bearish. Core CPI month-over-month at 0.3% exceeded expectations, PPI stuck at 5.4%, oil prices and long-term US Treasury yields remain high. Last week at Jackson Hole, Waller made it clear—the tightening stance won’t change until inflation hits 2%. But I still hold a sliver of hope. The market has priced in a 90% chance of a rate hike; if it really happens, it would be a classic case of “bad news fully priced in.” Goldman Sachs also said the FOMC would want to avoid market reactions triggered by keeping rates unchanged.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ The US stock market is about to open, will it go up or down today? Honestly, I really can't guess, but the current situation is especially awkward. The FOMC is just before dawn tomorrow, with a 90% probability of a rate hike, and the whole internet is betting on a 25 basis point increase. At times like this, bulls dare not act rashly; even the slightest stir can trigger a sell-off. I'm afraid the US stock market will open low and smash $BTC down to 74,000 or even 72,000. But on the other hand, the market has already priced in the "rate hike" expectation fully. If the US stock market opens low and then rises tonight, or directly ignores the negative news and surges upward, then as long as the FOMC is slightly dovish tomorrow, it will be a typical case of "bad news fully priced in turning into good news," and BTC will pull back to 80,000, giving me some breathing room on this position. Looking at the market, $XRP is still in the green, at least it's rising. Then looking at the positions still losing money in my hands, it's really frustrating. The $HYPE grid is still tirelessly arbitraging, earning some small change all to fill the bottomless pit that is BTC.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ With the FOMC announcement imminent, the whole internet has gone crazy. The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a rate hike, with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and HSBC all flipping their stance. Reuters surveyed 101 economists, and 86 expect a 25 basis point hike. Interest rates are expected to reach 3.75%-4.00%. The reasons are clear—PPI year-on-year at 5.4%, CPI month-on-month at 0.4%, oil prices and long-term US Treasury yields all stuck at high levels. I took another look at my BTC long position. Average price 80,619, mark price 77,676, unrealized loss 37.89%, down 74U. To avoid liquidation, the forced liquidation price is tightly held at 67,891. This position has been held for over a month; every morning I open my account to a slow, painful loss—it’s really wearing me down. The funniest part is Trump and Hassett still shouting: "No reason to raise rates!" No matter how many tweets the blond guy posts, it’s useless. If the Fed listened to the president, what independence would it have? Besides, with those inflation numbers on the table, even seasoned players like Goldman Sachs have accepted it. How could Warsh back down now? The only comfort I have now is those $HYPE grids. Hustling to arbitrage hundreds of times daily, making a few small gains. But in the end, it all went into $BTC, this bottomless pit.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ Why is the Fed so stubbornly holding onto rate hikes right now? It's precisely because AI capital is expanding wildly, data centers are being built like crazy, pushing energy and chip prices through the roof, making inflation impossible to bring down. At this moment, instead of helping to cool things off, Trump is shouting "AI is surging" and telling them not to hit the brakes. If you keep flooring it here, inflation expectations dropping is just a fantasy! CPI data just came out, core monthly rate at 0.3% slightly above expectations, and the probability of a rate hike shot up to 90%. I'm staring at my $BTC long position opened at 80,619, floating at a -40% loss, with the forced liquidation price stubbornly stuck at 67,878. Every day it's a slow bleed, I was hoping for a breather at the FOMC on September 17, but the blond guy is still furiously adding fuel to the inflation fire. A few days ago he said the White House has no reason to raise rates and wants to maintain the status quo, then turned around and started posting about AI hype. So the rate hike blade isn't falling on you, huh? You really don't feel the pain. AI surging is indeed a good thing, and a technological revolution is definitely needed, but at this critical moment, your hot air is precisely stepping on the liquidation line of my long position. Forced liquidation price at 67,878, FOMC is coming soon, half of my fate is in the hands of Powell, and the other half is damn well in the hands of this "strong and smart" president.

#Trump Accepts New Ethics Clause, CLARITY Vote Approaching Trump actually compromised. Latest news, he has conceded on the ethics clause of the CLARITY Act. To summarize simply: On September 15th, which is tomorrow, the Senate will hold a procedural vote. This vote is not the final decision, but it requires 60 votes to proceed. The Republicans have only 53 seats, meaning they need to secure at least 7 Democratic votes. Previously, the process was stuck because of the ethics clause; Democrats insisted on restricting the President and officials from profiting in crypto, and with Trump's own business involved, there was no room for negotiation. Now he has stepped back and accepted 80%, which is definitely a critical step. If it passes tomorrow, regulatory certainty will follow, with clearer division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, and clearer token classifications, which is a huge positive for the entire industry. But! I glanced down at my $BTC long position opened at 80,619. Even if the bill passes tomorrow, it's a long-term positive and won't save the immediate fire. The market is currently fixated on the September 17th FOMC meeting, with the probability of a rate hike pushed above 90%. The bill is a good one, but my fate is in the hands of the Fed. Tomorrow, I'll first watch the vote results, then endure a couple more days to see the Fed. Hopefully, there will be double good news, giving my long position some breathing room.

#本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve is about to announce its interest rate decision. The market is basically certain about a 25 basis point hike, even institutions like Goldman Sachs, which were previously stubborn, have switched sides. Trump and Hassett are still shouting "no reason to raise rates," saying the status quo should be maintained before the election. But if the Fed really listens to the blond guy, would they still have any face? With Wash's temper, it's very unlikely they'll back down. Honestly, I don't care about the Fed's bullshit logic right now; I only care about my nearly collapsing $BTC long position. Entered at 80,619, now the mark price has directly dropped to 77,518, a floating loss of 40%. The liquidation price is firmly pressed at 67,878. This distance means that even a slight dip could take me out immediately. Watching it slowly decline every day feels like being cut by a dull knife. It hurts to cut, but I endure the pain. The only comfort I have is the HYPE grid beside me. With a principal of 45U, it has been stuck for 10 days, grid earnings +23.6, total earnings +9.23%. Nearly 300 arbitrage trades daily, like a tireless worker, clawing back a little money for me in the volatility. But the small change earned from $HYPE can't fill the bottomless pit that is BTC. These past two days, the whole network has been guessing whether there will be a rate hike or not. Honestly, I'm numb. If they hike, I will most likely hit the liquidation price; if not, there might be a chance for a rebound to catch a breath.

#PPI, CPI released, multiple institutions raise September rate hike expectations Hassett came out and said: "Both Trump and I believe there is no reason to raise rates; maintaining the status quo before the election is very important." Seeing this news, I stared at the screen for several seconds in disbelief. Is the White House really that anxious? They even said nonsense like "100% respect for Waugh's independence." Everyone knows Trump would love to overturn the Fed's table, and now he comes out saying "no reason to raise rates," then adds "whatever they decide, we support it," which is pure double talk. Trump's own "I don't know" just shows how uneasy he really is. But no matter what, this lifeline is really crucial for the current market. White House pressure may not truly influence Waugh's final decision, but it can provide the market with the much-needed "emotional buffer." As long as in the next few days, the market is willing to reprice the expectation of "possibly no rate hike," $BTC can catch a breath and slowly climb back. I don't expect a single statement to get me out of the hole, but at least it prevents a direct collapse before September 16. After enduring so long, bulls and bears are clashing fiercely around 77,000; tonight I'll be watching how the US stock market opens and digests this news.

#BTC Spot ETF Outflows Near $450 Million in Three Days $450 million ran out in three days, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale all pulling out. Keep in mind, in early September, those same three days just brought in $1.01 billion, but in less than a week, all that money ran out, plus an additional $450 million went out. These ETF institutions flip faster than turning a page. The worst part now is that my long BTC position is still holding inside. Opened at 80,619, now at 77,394, with an unrealized loss of 41%, and the forced liquidation price is tightly pressed at 69,351. Watching the ETF outflow numbers every day and then looking at my own position really feels awful. You ask what these institutions are afraid of? Just look at the calendar—September 16 FOMC, September 25 quarterly options expiration, with $14.39 billion in notional size looming. The probability of a rate hike has been pushed to 90%, who dares to rush in now? But on the flip side, ETF outflows, rate hike expectations, and options expiration all happening together usually means the market is at its toughest. After the options settle on September 25, whether rates go up or not, the bad news will be priced in. If $BTC can still hold around 77,000 then, it's very likely the bottom.

#美国CPI环比加速，加息预期升温 Watching the market, tonight's contract trading volume really exploded. $BTC turnover reached 8.5 billion, $ETH directly hit 12.7 billion, it's quite lively. But if you look closely at the prices, BTC only rose 0.07%, ETH rose 0.49%. This is interesting—huge volume, but prices barely move. To put it plainly, bulls and bears are locked in fierce combat around the 77,000 level, cutting each other down. Some are desperately bottom-fishing, others are frantically shorting, the chips are flying in turnover. Seeing this volume, I feel both excited and anxious. Excited because this level of volume often signals a turning point. As long as the bulls put in a bit of effort and crush the bears, a big bullish candle could shoot up directly. The BTC long position I opened at 80,619 (currently floating at a 37% loss, liquidation price 69,351) might really get a chance to revive and get out of the red early. Anxious because if the selling pressure is too heavy and the bulls can't hold, this huge volume dump could directly push the price down, and that liquidation price of 69,351 would really be at risk.

#PPI higher than expected, tonight's CPI sets the direction CPI has landed. Core CPI monthly rate is 0.3%, slightly higher than the expected 0.2%, overall still within expectations. But take a look at the prediction market, the probability of a rate hike has shot up to 90%! The market is still being heavily suppressed, US Treasury yields are soaring, gold and the crypto space are under pressure. But I just don't buy it. I strongly feel the odds of a rate hike are low. Trump can even do things like "give everyone $5000," so how could he just watch the Fed drain liquidity before the election? The Yellow Hair (Trump) won't allow it. Check the account. $BTC long position opened at 80,619, now at 77,748, floating loss of 37%, forced liquidation price is pressed at 69,351. Meanwhile, $HYPE is performing well, average price 70.9, now 81.6, slowly recovering. Is it about to break even? Every time hope is just sparked, it gets extinguished. But the US stock market is about to open, this battle is crucial. Not sleeping tonight, watching the US stock market. Give me a clear win.