The expectation of a rate hike has already approached 90%, it's almost a done deal, so stop talking about the unrealistic view of a rate cut. From Trump's standpoint, no problem, a rate hike is something he cannot tolerate, but the market will ultimately price it correctly. No matter how much Warsh shows off, it can't change the fact that the current market needs a rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% is also telling everyone that market risk is too high and the possibility of a recession is too high. The market will further doubt Whether your Federal Reserve is truly independent. If it becomes a regulatory tool for Trump, what will happen to the US dollars and dollar assets we hold? Actually, the market is pricing in this risk. —————————— Some solid points: the rate hike expectation is basically a done deal, but this time the dot plot (which may not appear) and subsequent statements become more important. What truly drives the market reaction is Whether this tightening path "has boundaries and credibility" that can pull the Fed's credibility back from the edge of the cliff. This is the core of this trade and the core test of Warsh's ability. It's absolutely not just about whether this rate hike happens or not. A "follow-through with a clear end point" rate hike is more friendly to risk assets than a "hold position but keep the threat" no rate hike. And a rate hike that "opens up an unlimited tightening imagination space" (raising r*, explicitly targeting inflation) is more deadly than any no rate hike. What can be confirmed Certainty has the greatest leverage effect on duration assets #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？

From 2001 to present on 9/11 17 valid trading days, 15 times up, 3 times down Only in 2002, 2009, and 2020 SPX closed down Other times it closed up #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向

Briefly synchronized important information 1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week Any progress will immediately benefit both Japanese and Korean stock markets You can call $KORU $SOXL directly here Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea Relative changes in the strait will have a relative reverse effect on the market 2. I will be fully with everyone at the 10-year U.S. Treasury auction at 1:00 AM on Wednesday This 10-year Treasury auction may be the most important of the quarter This will guide whether the market is heading toward recession 3. Employment Data CPI and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about recession, and today's decline is no exception 4. This decline is unrelated to the pre-report defense of NVDA; this time the decline is more driven by recession defense A typical hedging method 5. Gold remains an important long-term asset 6. Focus on holding a cryptocurrency summit at the White House on Wednesday, attended by the SEC, CFTC, as well as leaders from crypto companies such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, and Gemini. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said tokenization could become a key focus of the summit. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

cohr csco guessed right cbrs guessed wrong again #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

CSCO earnings report bearish $CSCO In the last 30 minutes of the close, a large bullish option close-out appeared, seemingly deliberate Expected move: 7.57% (+/- $9.36) From the option GEX perspective, 130 and 135 also become important resistance levels for CSCO While 110 is also an important support level for CSCO At the close between 13:30-13:35, a large ITM bullish sell order was executed This will be an extremely bearish option position ———————— This only represents the option market view, and deviation from facts is relatively normal #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

Bullish after CBRS earnings report $CBRS has been strong since the earnings report Expected move: 11.46% (+/- $29.85) As of 3:30, $290 is the current target price for the bulls And there is heavy profit-taking and long liquidation at $300 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

COHR Earnings Preview Options market bearish on earnings / below expectations $COHR has seen a large number of short positions opened, with further bearish option trades occurring in the last thirty minutes Expected move: 8.92% (+/- $31.57) From the options orders, COHR is unlikely to fall below 300 or break above 400 The 9DTE 350 PUT is the main bearish option order; the options market expects COHR to fall below $350 after earnings The divergence in options amid today's strong market is worth noting #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

Also watched the market all night Let's talk about the market changes Yesterday at the open, the overall market sectors were under pressure, with tech stocks and semiconductors facing high-level suppression But in the last ten minutes, SOXX and Neocloud both saw significant rallies before earnings reports This means the market is not so fearful of this CPI So my judgment is that it meets expectations But possibly due to the current high price of CL (crude oil) FED officials may still come out and say "If the current crude oil price holds or rises, the Fed will still take action"—the usual rhetoric But this does not affect market sentiment #今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？