Buying US 10-year Treasury bonds now guarantees a steady 5% return with basically no major risk. Just lying back and buying US Treasuries now can yield stable returns, naturally attracting institutional funds. A lot of money will be pulled out from the crypto circle and US tech stocks to buy US Treasuries for risk aversion. $SNDK The reason yields are rising is that the market believes inflation can't be suppressed, and the Federal Reserve will maintain high interest rates for a long time, with even the possibility of rate hikes. The US keeps issuing new debt, and to attract others to take over, it has to raise interest rates. $MU $SKHYNIX This situation is not good for our crypto circle. Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH are both high-risk assets. On one hand, there are stable 5% US Treasuries, and on the other, the volatile cryptocurrencies. Funds will definitely hesitate. This also explains why BTC spot ETFs have been continuously flowing out. When US Treasury yields rise, borrowing costs become more expensive. US AI and chip stocks bear the brunt first, and the crypto circle suffers along. Especially Ethereum, which is more volatile than Bitcoin, has weaker resilience in this environment. Coincidentally, the FOMC decision is about to be announced. US Treasuries breaking through 5% directly intensifies market tension. If yields stay steadily above 5%, risk assets will find it hard to have a decent rally. Only if the Fed's speech is dovish and Treasury yields fall can Bitcoin and Ethereum have a chance to rebound. News tends to fluctuate back and forth, and intraday spikes are common. With so many macro variables piling up, don't heavily bet on a one-sided move. Be patient and wait for tonight's Fed decision before making a move.

The $ETH CLARITY bill vote failed to pass, directly impacting Ethereum sentiment. The previous surge to 2540 quickly cooled off and has now started to pull back and fluctuate. It is completely linked to Bitcoin's movement, with even greater volatility elasticity. Whenever there is any market disturbance, Ethereum's price swings are more intense. Previously, market speculation on the bill passing pushed prices up, but now that the bill failed to secure 60 votes, short-term bullish expectations have been dashed. Many funds that had positioned early chose to take profits and exit. The 2540-2560 range above has now become a strong resistance zone; to break through it again requires strong buying power. On the downside, short-term support is seen around 2460. If this defense line fails, the correction space will further open up. Currently, everyone in the market is waiting for the FOMC interest rate decision. With high expectations of rate hikes, large funds are hesitant to enter the market to speculate. Market liquidity tightens, and price spikes will become more frequent. $BTC At this stage, it is an adjustment phase after expectations have been realized, with intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Bulls are hoping the Federal Reserve will signal a more dovish stance to trigger a rebound; bears are betting on the rate hike implementation combined with the bill's failure, a double negative continuing to press the market down. You can watch the direction, but do not chase trades recklessly. In a volatile phase, whether going long or short, it is easy to get stopped out by intraday price spikes. Ethereum has thin liquidity and high volatility; once the market moves, its price changes will outpace Bitcoin's. Before the FOMC decision is released, prioritize position control, reduce heavy speculation, and wait for the macro dust to settle before assessing the true trend direction.

The procedural vote on the $BTC CLARITY Act in the Senate has concluded, with results falling short of market expectations. It failed to secure the 60 votes needed to proceed to formal consideration, effectively stalling the bill at this stage and making its passage this year highly unlikely. This vote was only a procedural motion to end debate, not the final vote on the bill’s enactment, but it was crucial. All Republicans supported it, but they only garnered 53 votes. The hope to sway at least 7 Democratic senators to cross party lines was not realized, leaving a gap in bipartisan support. Even though Republicans made early concessions, amending hundreds of clauses addressing core disagreements such as stablecoin yields, conflicts of interest for public officials holding crypto assets, and DeFi developer liabilities, no agreement was reached. Once the vote results were announced, the previously hyped positive expectations for the bill’s passage instantly cooled. Subsequently, U.S. crypto regulation will revert to the old model, relying mainly on SEC enforcement actions without a unified and clear legislative framework for the industry. In the short term, market sentiment will be impacted, with funds that entered betting on the bill’s success starting to exit, likely causing a wave of selling pressure. However, there is no need to panic excessively. The bill is only temporarily shelved, not permanently discarded. There will be opportunities to revise the text and resubmit it for a vote, but this will have to wait for the next congressional session, which could take a very long time. Currently, the market is also focused on this week’s FOMC interest rate meeting. With a cluster of policy announcements, market volatility will increase. Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around 78,000, and combined with the negative sentiment from the bill’s failure, the battle between bulls and bears will intensify. After expectations are dashed, sharp price spikes and shakeouts are likely, so position sizes should be controlled during high-level trading.

#This week's FOMC announcement, will the rate hike happen? FOMC countdown, I believe this rate hike will not happen! This week's market focus is entirely on the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. Currently, interest rate futures price in nearly a 90% probability of a 25 basis point hike, with most institutions betting on the hike happening, but I think there will be no rate hike. Although August CPI data slightly exceeded expectations and rising oil prices have raised inflation concerns, the inflation is more of a short-term disturbance caused by energy and has not shown sustained deterioration. Employment data is not persistently overheated, and the economy is not at a point where immediate tightening is necessary. The Federal Reserve can choose to pause the rate hike, keep an observation window open, and wait for more data to verify; there is no need to act forcefully. Of course, high probability does not equal certainty. The market has already priced in much of the rate hike expectation. The real focus has never been whether to hike or not, but the post-meeting dot plot and statements. Even if there is no rate hike, if the tone remains hawkish, implying possible hikes later, risk assets will still face pressure. Rate hikes would be after November. If the rate is indeed kept unchanged, it would be an unexpectedly positive signal, directly boosting market sentiment. Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH would see a wave of impulse moves. But beware of profit-taking after the positive news is realized. Currently, Bitcoin is stuck oscillating around 78,000, and Ethereum is repeatedly testing around 2,500. Funds are collectively cautious and reluctant to enter aggressively. ETFs are still experiencing outflows, and the market itself lacks incremental buying.

Chip stocks collectively plummet! Trump publicly speaks out, opposing AI braking! #AI发展焦虑升温，芯片股集体走弱 The biggest variable in the global capital markets recently comes from the AI sector. Industry leaders have collectively voiced concerns about the rapid iteration of AI technology posing risks of losing control, calling for a slowdown in development pace. These remarks directly shattered market confidence, triggering capital panic and flight, causing global chip stocks to weaken collectively and continue to dive $SNDK The market logic is very straightforward: once AI expansion slows down, demand for computing power will peak, and chip leaders led by Nvidia $NVDA will lose their growth rationale, prompting funds to rush to sell off to avoid risk, pushing the overall sentiment in the tech sector to rock bottom. $SKHYNIX Just as AI bearishness ferments and the market turns pessimistic, a key dramatic message emerges: Trump proactively called Jensen Huang, publicly refuting the "AI slowdown theory." He bluntly stated that the so-called AI risk rhetoric is pure exaggeration and panic, clearly expressing full support for the continued expansion of AI and computing power industries, refusing to put the brakes on the tech sector. $MU This call is equivalent to an official intervention forcibly propping up the tech sector, offsetting the industry's pessimistic expectations. But so far, verbal reassurance cannot save the weak market, and market anxiety has not completely dissipated. Currently, tech stocks and US stocks are experiencing increased volatility, directly driving repeated fluctuations in global risk asset sentiment. The crypto market, as a highly volatile risk market, is inevitably affected by this sentiment. Coupled with this week's heavyweight FOMC interest rate meeting, the market's long-short battles are intense, making market spikes, oscillations, and anomalies the norm.

$BTC Bitcoin is currently stuck steadily around the 79,000 mark, repeatedly gathering strength, with the market trend being very strange. Despite continuous large outflows from ETFs, rising expectations of interest rate hikes, and a cluster of macroeconomic negatives, the price stubbornly refuses to drop; every dip finds support, showing full resilience. Many people see the negative factors but no price drop and immediately conclude the market will strongly break through 80,000, but there is absolutely no need for blind optimism. $ETH Currently, there is no incremental institutional capital entering the market; it is all supported by short-term funds and market sentiment. The 80,000 resistance level is heavily burdened with trapped positions and profit-taking, making it a very strong pressure point; every rally tends to be met with resistance and a pullback. Right now, the overall market is a typical high-level stock game, with bulls and bears extremely entangled. Bulls test the highs, bears suppress selling pressure; neither side can open a one-sided trend, with frequent intraday spikes and false breakouts designed to trap retail traders chasing the market. Everyone in the market is watching this week's FOMC meeting; large funds have all paused operations, waiting for the outcome. Before the decision is announced, Bitcoin will not show a clear direction and will continue to oscillate and consolidate. One last reminder: the current market can be viewed as oscillating and under pressure, but it is absolutely not suitable for reckless chasing of positions. There is no breakout signal for bullish positions, and bearish bets are easily stopped out by short-term rallies; patiently waiting for a clear direction is the optimal choice. $SOL #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #特朗普接受新版伦理条款，CLARITY投票临近 #BTC现货ETF三日流出近4.5亿美元