The expectation of a rate hike has already approached 90%, it's almost a done deal, so stop talking about the unrealistic view of a rate cut. From Trump's standpoint, no problem, a rate hike is something he cannot tolerate, but the market will ultimately price it correctly. No matter how much Warsh shows off, it can't change the fact that the current market needs a rate hike. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking 5% is also telling everyone that market risk is too high and the possibility of a recession is too high. The market will further doubt Whether your Federal Reserve is truly independent. If it becomes a regulatory tool for Trump, what will happen to the US dollars and dollar assets we hold? Actually, the market is pricing in this risk. —————————— Some solid points: the rate hike expectation is basically a done deal, but this time the dot plot (which may not appear) and subsequent statements become more important. What truly drives the market reaction is Whether this tightening path "has boundaries and credibility" that can pull the Fed's credibility back from the edge of the cliff. This is the core of this trade and the core test of Warsh's ability. It's absolutely not just about whether this rate hike happens or not. A "follow-through with a clear end point" rate hike is more friendly to risk assets than a "hold position but keep the threat" no rate hike. And a rate hike that "opens up an unlimited tightening imagination space" (raising r*, explicitly targeting inflation) is more deadly than any no rate hike. What can be confirmed Certainty has the greatest leverage effect on duration assets #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？

From 2001 to present on 9/11 17 valid trading days, 15 times up, 3 times down Only in 2002, 2009, and 2020 SPX closed down Other times it closed up #PPI高于预期，今晚CPI定方向

Brief synchronization of important information 1. There should be significant progress in the Strait of Hormuz this week If progress occurs, it will immediately benefit the Japanese and South Korean stock markets Here you can directly call $KORU $SOXL Crude oil is also the biggest threat to inflation in Japan and South Korea Relative changes in the strait will bring a relative opposite effect to the market 2. I will fully accompany everyone for the 10y US Treasury auction at 1:00 on Wednesday This 10y US Treasury auction may be the most important of this quarter It will guide whether the market heads toward a recession 3. Employment data, CPI, and PPI guidance all point to no rate hikes, but last week's decline in consumer data has raised market concerns about a recession. Today's decline is also due to this 4. This decline is unrelated to defensive moves before NVDA earnings; this time it is more about recession defense causing the drop A typical safe haven 5. Gold remains an important long-term target 6. Pay attention to the cryptocurrency summit held at the White House on Wednesday, with participants including SEC, CFTC, and crypto company leaders such as Coinbase, Robinhood, Ripple, Gemini, etc. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said tokenization may become a focus of the summit. #30年期美债收益率创2007年以来新高

cohr csco guessed right cbrs guessed wrong again #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

CSCO earnings report bearish $CSCO In the last 30 minutes of the close, a large bullish option close-out appeared, seemingly deliberate Expected move: 7.57% (+/- $9.36) From the option GEX perspective, 130 and 135 also become important resistance levels for CSCO While 110 is also an important support level for CSCO At the close between 13:30-13:35, a large ITM bullish sell order was executed This will be an extremely bearish option position ———————— This only represents the option market view, and deviation from facts is relatively normal #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

Bullish after CBRS earnings report $CBRS has been strong since the earnings report Expected move: 11.46% (+/- $29.85) As of 3:30, $290 is the current target price for the bulls And there is heavy profit-taking and long liquidation at $300 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

COHR earnings report preview Bearish earnings reports in the options market / below expectations $COHR A large number of short positions have been established, and further put options begin to be traded in the last thirty minutes Expected move: 8.92% (+/- $31.57) Looking at option orders, COHR is unlikely to break below 300 or 400 9DTE 350 PUT is the main put option order, and the options market expects it to fall below $350 after COHR's earnings report Against today's strong backdrop, the emergence of option divergence is worth noting #财报观察员: AI infrastructure earnings report debuts one after another

He also spent the whole night watching the market Let's talk about the changes in the market Yesterday, the market opened under pressure across the entire market, with tech stocks and semiconductors facing high-level pressure In the last ten minutes, SOXX Neocloud surged sharply before the earnings report This means the market is less fearful of this CPI So my judgment is that it meets expectations However, this may be due to the current issue of CL (crude oil) prices being too high FED officials may still come forward to speak "If current crude oil prices hold or rise, the Fed will still take action," and other empty remarks But it does not affect market sentiment #今晚CPI公布, will the pricing for a rate hike in September be rewritten?