The short position on $HYPE has finally turned profitable, breaking the critical survival line today and directly dropping to 78. But what we really need to guard against is a violent stampede! 1. The way derivatives show red lights has changed: the total open interest (OI) across the platform has surged to a record 14.3 billion, just 3% shy of the 14.7 billion before last October's crash. Positions have piled up to historic extremes; the higher the leverage, the harsher the stampede. 2. The long-term story remains intact; what’s broken is short-term leverage: market makers can operate compliantly; Kraken’s parent company is negotiating to offer Hyperliquid technology contracts to U.S. users. My plan: continue holding the short position, no intention to reduce before 70. Buybacks to support the price are real, but they only support a slow decline floor, not the floor against leveraged stampedes.

$RAY Definitely a monster coin! Today, while altcoins generally fell, it rose against the trend by 28% $RAY ! Current price 1.55, RSI 75.6 already overbought, MA bullish alignment but with a very steep slope. Volume ratio 2.37 exploded, capital cost -0.1527% rare negative value, shorts squeezed out. Last 3 days +20.72% unbelievable. This kind of monster coin rally is a typical combination of strong manipulation by whales + short squeeze. A big bullish candle +18.58% with no upper shadow, no lower wick, not a shakeout but a hard pump. Short-term riding the sentiment, but RSI at 75 means chasing the high is like catching a sharp peak. Exit if it breaks 1.4, don’t hold on faith.

Those who chase the parabolic pumps get stuck holding the bag, and those who buy the dips get hit on both ends! Today's market shows extreme divergence: Parabolic pumps include $RAY +28%, $NES +13.38% (volume ratio 9.24, explosive volume), ETHFI +11.34%; Sharp drops include IOST -36%, $ZEC -11.9%, BCH -9.29%, PUMP -9.37%, LIT -7%. Small coins like NES and ETHFI with explosive volume, similar to RAY, are driven by sentiment pumps and likely one-day wonders—don't chase the peak. BCH shows a long lower shadow (0.57), resembling a wick shakeout; PUMP and LIT follow the downtrend without independent rallies. The major coins BTC/ETH/SOL show small bearish candles, waiting for direction. On days of divergence, it's easiest to get cut—those chasing the parabolic pumps and those buying the dips both get hit. Cash is more valuable than chips.

The short-term structure of $ETH is broken: after the MACD death cross, the price followed with a breakdown, directly piercing the strong support at 2475 yesterday, stuck below the MA14. Support levels are failing one by one, which is a typical weakening trend. If tonight's CPI doesn't cooperate, the 2,400 round number will face a test. The main issue is that ETH's ecosystem benefits are too far off to help the short-term trend: the Fusaka upgrade mainnet launch is on December 3. The Fusaka upgrade is the biggest technical event for ETH this year. PeerDAS increases blob capacity from 6 to 24, and L2 costs are cut to a fraction. But the timing is indeed too far away; even if institutions want to position early, they have to wait until November. ETH is definitely following the broader market recently. I lean towards a decline due to rate hikes but do not recommend opening contracts to bet on direction. It is recommended to buy spot on dips; the win rate at this position is very high: maximum drawdown is at most 30%, but profit potential is 200%.

It's been a month, finally $HYPE has broken even😭😭😭

Actually, it's not just Robinhood; it's very difficult to profit from dog-chasing on any chain. The probability of profit, 0.9%, is the overall win rate of this gameplay. 1. When pump.fun first launched and dog-chasing on the Solana chain was booming, I was also on fire. I caught several big golden dogs but eventually lost 50 $SOL and exited. 2. From reviewing my losses, I drew three conclusions and realized that dog-chasing is no different from gambling: (1) Too many meme coins launch every day without fundamentals, and they ferment very quickly. You basically have only 3 minutes to decide whether to act. Essentially, it's like gambling with no way to research; (2) I did catch some golden dogs, but the probability is basically only 20%. Also, it's easy to miss selling at the right time because you need to double your capital, so basically, big golden dogs are sold off after about 3x gains; (3) As long as you keep playing, the money you earn will eventually be lost again because the fees are too high and your mindset tends to become unbalanced. 3. Take the Robinhood chain as an example: only a few coins like pons, pair, and $HOOD have emerged, which also helped drive a wave of $ARB. Nearly 400,000 other tokens have not emerged... 4. Of course, many friends have a personality of learning through practice, and I also support everyone giving it a try

$BTC has been fluctuating around 80,000 for half a month, and today everyone is discussing again: will it drop back to 50,000 to let everyone get on board? Personally, I still lean towards it dropping to 50,000, but my confidence is not that high anymore: 1. Because I believe there will be a rate hike in September, an unexpected rate hike and the possibility of future hikes could push BTC down to around 72,000; 2. Then, the clear bill might be rejected, making everyone realize that Trump's midterm election is likely to fail, and the days of a crypto-friendly president are over, causing BTC to fall below 60,000. 3. But my confidence is not that high anymore because Wall Street is not short of smart people. The current rate hike expectation is only 60%, just 10% more than a coin toss, indicating the likelihood of a rate hike is really low. 4. Looking back at last year's analysis now, I realize the estimate was quite accurate. But I didn't go all-in at 59,000 and instead kept 25% of my position expecting 55,000, which shows I made the human mistake again—being unsatisfied and hoping for a cheaper BTC. Resisting human nature is very difficult; we must constantly review and remind ourselves. Let's encourage each other!

Little brothers following the plunge $PEPE $SUI $ENA purely dragged down No independent market, purely dragged down by the big brothers. PEPE -6.95%, SUI -6.82%, ENA -9.67%. PEPE RSI 49.8 neutral, MA tangled, meme purely sentiment-driven; SUI MA bullish alignment (0.797 > 0.778 > 0.75) with a decent base, volume ratio 1.14, falling with volume but supported by the ecosystem; ENA -9.67% short-term death cross (MA5 0.161 < MA10 0.162), RSI 53 not oversold. All three Don’t catch falling knives in the red market, wait for BTC to stabilize before acting, cash is more valuable than chips.

What happened to today's collective crash of popular altcoins? The altcoins collectively crashed today, and this was a real sell-off, not a shakeout. $UNI -12.8%, LIT -13.2%, $PUMP -12.9%, $ARB -12.2%, TRUMP -11.5%, all dropped sharply with a big bearish candle. But note! Unlike the previous "long lower shadow + sideways" pattern seen in BEAT/LAB, today all of these are solid bearish candles with no wicks—this is a genuine sell-off, not a manipulative wick to shake out weak hands. Most MAs are still in bullish alignment (due to previous strong rallies), indicating this is not a trend reversal to bearish but a combination of profit-taking and macro panic selling. PUMP had the harshest single-day drop at -14%. Liquidity withdrawal by whales + contract chain reactions + US stock market drop and oil price breaking $100, these three factors are like knives at the neck. With these coins being hammered and then pulled, no one can say for sure what will happen next. Be cautious and don't catch a falling knife!

$UNI free lunch is about to expire, how much of the on-chain volume is subsidy-fed? This drop is caused by macro factors + profit-taking at high levels hitting together. The real trump card is the fee switch buy-and-burn: about $90 million UNI burned annually (accounting for 1.5% of circulation), deflation is real, but a 44x revenue valuation has already priced in expectations. The biggest variable is Robinhood Chain's gas subsidy expiring on September 29. In these two months, it generated 47 billion in volume, once surpassing Solana in daily volume, accounting for 56% of Uniswap V4 volume. How much of this is subsidy-fed will be clear on the expiration date; this is a real test for UNI's volume and price. On the policy side, the CLARITY Act procedural vote in the Senate on September 15 (needs 60 votes) is a regulatory positive for DeFi if passed, but don't go all in early; CPI will set the tone on September 11. My view: 7 days of oscillation with a bullish bias (deflation trump card is strong). 5.935 is support, 6.96 is resistance, only stabilizing above 7.3 will open the way to 8. The subsidy variable on 9/29 is more worth watching than the overall market; how much on-chain volume drops after the subsidy stops will recalculate UNI's valuation. Previously took a light position, don't leverage before CPI/FOMC.