📝Event｜Over 100 million long positions under pressure, Maji Big Brother faces market judgment again The Maji Big Brother address has recently been continuously reducing long positions. According to monitoring data, about 125 million USD worth of positions were reduced today, and BTC and HYPE long positions have been fully liquidated. Specifically, BTC long positions dropped from about 369 to zero, and HYPE long positions decreased from about 40,000 to 20,000, with the reduction concentrated in the evening. Currently, the address still holds about 20,000 ETH, but compared to previous positions, the exposure of longs has significantly decreased. What is truly worth noting about this event is not just "someone reduced positions again," but three layers of signals: 1. Leveraged longs continue to retreat The concentrated exit of over 100 million worth of long positions indicates that some high-risk funds chose to reduce exposure before the FOMC, unwilling to leave chips amid news uncertainty. ​ 2. BTC and HYPE were cleared first Relatively more macro and leveraged BTC longs, as well as the sentiment-driven HYPE, became the priority for reduction. This usually means funds are shrinking risk appetite rather than simply rebalancing. ​ 3. ETH still remains But ETH was not completely cleared, indicating that funds are not fully bearish but rather compressing the long front, retaining some resilient judgment on ETH.

FOMC countdown, highly elastic funds moved first late at night $BTC Current price 75850. After testing the low of 74896 during the day, Bitcoin did not collapse completely but pulled back to around 75800 to consolidate. The slight rebound after a deep drop is not a reversal signal; it is highly elastic funds testing the market late at night. Many people tend to mistake the rebound at night as a large buying entry. You need to distinguish between two types of funds: One is long-term funds slowly accumulating chips, the other is short-term hot money and arbitrage funds quickly making a move when liquidity is low. The latter is the so-called highly elastic funds, acting fast and not lingering, taking a little profit and running. They are active now: smashing on breakouts, grabbing rebounds when oversold, not betting on the big trend but on short-term sentiment recovery. Technically, the 15-minute SUPERTREND and moving averages have not truly turned upward yet. 74900 is the newly formed emotional low, and 76300-76800 is the first resistance. Whether the rebound can go far depends not on how strong the night rally is, but on whether the buying can continue after liquidity returns during the day. All short-term moves are just a rehearsal before the FOMC decision. Whether the rate hike will be implemented and whether the tone is hawkish or dovish are the core factors determining if this rebound is an "oversold recovery" or a "new wave starting point." The nighttime activity can be observed, but don’t get overly excited and heavily invested. Highly elastic funds come fast and leave more decisively than anyone else.

$BTC 📝Hot Topics｜📍Today's four major discussions on the planet, all main themes collide on the eve of the FOMC ➤CLARITY bill voting blocked, causing controversy The market was previously very optimistic, pricing in a step forward for US crypto compliance in advance. The procedural vote failed to cross the 60-vote threshold; it's not a complete death sentence, but short-term positive expectations were directly dashed. Many who bet on the “institutional compliance boom” have hit the pause button. It's not a devastating negative, but a large-scale scene of buying expectations and selling facts. Regulatory uncertainty has been extended again, the market lacks a strong upward catalyst, and sentiment takes a hit first. ➤AI development anxiety intensifies, regulatory discussions escalate On one side, Nvidia and large model narratives continue to heat up, while globally the reins are tightening simultaneously. AI and crypto are increasingly like a pair of troubled siblings: the hotter the innovation, the tighter the regulatory scrutiny. Capital is wildly jumping back and forth between speculation and policy concerns. Volatility in the AI sector is also indirectly driving overall risk appetite. ➤Middle East energy risks push oil prices higher Geopolitical tensions have not completely cooled off, oil prices remain high, and the shadow of inflation lingers. This directly ties the hands of the Federal Reserve. The widely expected “pause to breathe after rate hikes” is continuously delayed by high oil prices. Energy is the biggest hidden thread in this macro cycle; don’t just focus on the CPI numbers themselves.

$BTC BTC pulled back from 60,000 to above 70,000, the price is back, but confidence hasn't caught up yet In the past two weeks, Bitcoin has been dragged from a low near 60,000 at the end of August back up to above 70,000 USD. The price is back, but the market doesn't seem to truly believe it. An interesting market condition: the candlesticks have repaired very nicely, but sentiment remains hesitant. Many people still have the panic memory around 60,000 stuck in their minds, treating any slight rise as a rebound to escape, and any slight pullback as a second bottom test. Leverage funds dare not firmly go long, big money is cautiously testing while reducing positions, ETFs flow in and out, sometimes flowing in, sometimes leaking out, rarely seeing reckless chasing of highs. Even many bottom-fishers are mentally waiting for "a decent pullback" rather than firmly believing a new upward cycle has started. This is a typical case of price leading and confidence lagging. A rebound can rely on short squeezes, oversold recovery, or macro expectation warming; but a trend reversal requires repeated rounds of buying to verify. What everyone sees now as a rise is partly valuation repair after a deep drop, partly leverage position replenishment. Consensus hasn't formed yet, and divergence is at its peak: some think the pullback is over, others are convinced it's just a big B-wave escape window. Don't simply judge "lack of belief means it will fall further," nor think "once it rises, it must keep hitting new highs." When price leads faith, the market is most prone to repeated violent fluctuations. It needs time, either slowly grinding until everyone accepts the rise, or taking a hard fall to shatter this wave of illusions.

📝Observation | Something very interesting is happening when the market is tense $BTC On the eve of the FOMC, nerves are tight; retail and leveraged funds are fleeing in panic, with many reducing positions on rallies and cutting losses on breakdowns. But on the other side, some public Bitcoin treasury companies are actually continuing to increase their holdings. This is the most authentic picture of market division: Some are driven by short-term volatility and rate hike anxiety, treating pullbacks as danger signals; Another group of listed treasury companies sees the volatility and panic as a window for their long-term positioning. It doesn't mean that their buying will definitely lead to a rise, nor that following them guarantees a win. But this contrast is worth pondering: when everyone is afraid, who is selling, and who is truly buying with real money. ETF outflows reflect short-term sentiment, while treasury companies' accumulation is a long-term strategy. Both signals appear simultaneously on the market; you can't just focus on one side. Don't simply interpret it as "institutions bottom fishing, immediate big rally." Institutions can also make mistakes and have their own financing rhythms and cost pressures. It only shows one thing: regarding BTC's long-term narrative, some have not given up due to a round of pullbacks or a rate hike suspense. The truth of the long-short game is never decided by a single piece of news, but by funds at different time horizons exchanging chips at the same price.

📝Market Overview｜On the eve of the FOMC, the market reveals its cards first: who is ready to take over, who is naked swimming Bitcoin is tugging back and forth around 77,100. The volatility on the eve of the decision is never meaningless sideways movement. It’s capital quietly probing: which levels really have buyers willing to step in, and which price points will slide down immediately once orders are withdrawn. Short-term leveraged traders who need to exit won’t wait for the news to drop to act, and the capital that wants to lay in wait won’t make big bets prematurely. Now is the time for testing, disguising, and mutual probing. Don’t be fooled by the "neither up nor down" market. During the tug-of-war, strength or weakness is unclear; once the boot drops, the truth is immediately revealed: those with real support won’t be shaken by bad news; those without buying support will be exposed by the slightest breeze. A 25bp rate hike is mostly priced in by the market; the real killer move is never the hike itself, but whether the post-meeting tone is hawkish or dovish. There are two things to avoid now: First, betting on direction prematurely, mistaking the volatility for a signal to heavily go long or short; Second, thinking "since a big move is coming anyway, might as well hold a position and wait for the breakout." The tug-of-war before dawn is the easiest time to relax risk controls. Volatility is energy building, not a safe zone.

$CORE 📝 Market Overview｜CORE is slowly approaching 0.008, bottom fishing is an expectation, not a certainty Current price is around 0.018, gradually moving step by step toward the target level of 0.008 in many people's minds. It’s a steady decline without a sharp crash, just slowly eroding faith. On one side, there’s the grand narrative of doing business in Tokyo and dreaming in Antarctica; on the other, the reality of the market continuously weakening. Many people now have one thought: wait for 0.008, and buy when it hits. Here’s a common pitfall: Don’t prematurely treat a psychological price level as a "rock-bottom." A price everyone is waiting for often has two outcomes: either it never actually reaches it and rebounds, causing you to miss out; or it does reach it but can still fall even further. If you believe in its story, you can set a watch point, but don’t go all in betting on a guaranteed rise at that point. In a steady downtrend, "the closer it falls to my ideal buy point" can easily turn into "the steeper the fall, the earlier I buy and get stuck halfway down." Narratives are romantic, but downward momentum is cold. You can wait, but don’t predict; you can hope, but don’t heavily bet on a single number.

After the consolidation, just waiting for a thorough release The sideways grinding is the most exhausting, with repeated ups and downs, and bulls and bears washing back and forth. Many people's patience is worn out in the consolidation; those who should hold can't, and those who shouldn't chase are rushing desperately. Now the market sentiment is: the grinding that needed to happen is done, just waiting for the direction to emerge. If it’s going to crash, let it crash thoroughly. But the more you hope for a “thorough drop,” the more you need to be clear about one thing: winning once with 100x leverage feels great, but losing once means immediate liquidation. Unrealized profits are just numbers on the screen; a single opposite spike can wipe them out instantly. Expecting the market to move in your favor is human nature; but treating that expectation as a certainty is a fatal trap. Don’t let the excitement of “finally going down” cloud your judgment. Consolidation ending ≠ guaranteed downward move, it just means volatility will increase. With unrealized profits in hand, the initiative is yours; don’t let greed give your short-term gains back to the market.

$BTC CLARITY bill fails, BTC dips to 74900, how to interpret this wave of sell-off This morning a key signal landed: the CLARITY bill was confirmed not to pass. The market had already priced in some positive expectations in advance; with those expectations unmet, sentiment immediately turned into selling pressure, pushing BTC down to a low of 74900. Many only see the price drop but miss two layers of logic: 1. Some institutional funds were betting on a short-term easing of US crypto regulations; after losing that bet, they retreated to hedge risk; 2. Combined with previous deep overselling and looming interest rate hikes, the negative news triggered a short-term breakdown and washout. But it’s important to distinguish: this drop is not a brand-new major negative, but a "positive expectation unfulfilled" sell-off. The previous oversold level around 75700 was broken, indicating that technical overselling alone can’t support the market; macro and policy expectations are the main drivers this round. 74900 is today’s emotional low; whether it holds depends on whether buyers step in to accept the reality that "the bill was never likely to pass outright." Now don’t simply say "it’s over, big crash coming" or "after the dump comes the golden pit." On one side, regulatory hopes are temporarily dashed; on the other, selling pressure is concentrated after continuous declines. The real drama is still the FOMC; the bill was just an intense warm-up act in advance.

📝Market Observation｜BTC is extremely oversold, ETH shows resilience, the battle is nearing its end After a round of continuous declines, BTC's short-term indicators have reached an extremely oversold zone. Panic is spreading, and a large amount of short-term selling pressure has been released, but do not simply equate oversold with an "imminent surge." Oversold only means the downward momentum is temporarily exhausted and a rebound can happen at any time; it does not mean a reversal. In contrast, ETH shows a clear difference, falling more restrained and demonstrating resilience. Some funds have not completely exited the crypto sector but have shifted from BTC to ETH. The market is quietly diverging: BTC is digesting the panic pricing from interest rate hikes, while ETH is pricing in mid-to-long-term logic of capital outflow and liquidity tightening on the chain. It is still too early to call the direction settled; we can only say the intense battle between bulls and bears is entering its final stage. Most short-term leveraged positions that needed to be cut have been cleared, and now it’s just waiting for the Federal Reserve’s decision to provide a signal. The two most dangerous moves in an oversold market are: rushing to go all-in bottom fishing when seeing oversold conditions; blindly shorting when seeing a decline. In the final phase of consolidation, patience is more valuable than prediction.