#LongYields5%NewNormal

#FedOctHikeOddsHit55% The Fed just hiked 25bp for the first time in over three years — and markets are already pricing another one in October at 55.4% 📈 The dot plot isn't subtle: most officials expect at least one more hike this year. This wasn't a one-and-done 👀 The inflation drivers keeping them hawkish: energy (Brent near $108), tariffs, and AI infrastructure spending that's injecting massive capex into the economy. All three persistent, none easy to solve with rate hikes alone 🫠 But here's the tension — growth, jobs, and earnings are all still resilient. The economy is absorbing higher rates better than most expected. Which raises the question: are stocks and BTC pricing in "one hike then pause," or genuinely comfortable with a prolonged higher-rate environment? 🤔 10-year yield above 5%. 30-year mortgage at 6.95%. These aren't small numbers 📉 First hike in three years, October odds already at 55% — is the market right to shrug this off, or is the real pain still ahead? 👇

#LongYields5%NewNormal The Fed hiked 25bps, but the long end barely blinked 👀 The 10-year briefly dipped toward 4.95% before returning near 5%, while the 30-year stayed above 5%. What caught my attention is the curve. If short yields stabilize but long yields stay elevated, this may be structural, not just Fed policy. AI capex, inflation risk and term premium are competing for capital. For BTC and high-beta assets, 5% long yields could become the new hurdle.

🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT. The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Why does this matter for crypto? Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets. #DailyOrbit

Gold's morning rise of over $100 is a clear no-confidence vote in the Fed's 25 basis point rate hike. Investors would rather own gold with no yield than 10-year Treasuries with a 5% yield, as that is not nearly enough to offset the purchasing power that will be lost to inflation.

🚨 THE 5% LINE JUST BROKE — AND BITCOIN IS FEELING IT. The US 10Y Treasury yield has officially pushed above 5%, its highest level since 2007. Why does this matter for crypto? Because when risk-free US yields get this attractive, money has less reason to chase risky assets. #DailyOrbit

92.4%! Markets are heavily pricing a 25bp September rate hike. The bigger risk is what comes next: October expectations are also pointing toward further tightening, keeping pressure on liquidity and risk assets. For $BTC and $ETH, the key isn’t just the hike—it’s the Fed’s guidance. A hawkish tone could add selling pressure, while a less-hawkish message may ease some of the pressure. #本周FOMC揭晓，加息能否落地？ #FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

$BTC is hovering around the $76,000 level. US stock futures are up ahead of today's FOMC meeting, while oil is down. Pre-market stock trading insights: ▫️Nasdaq futures is up 0.54% ▫️S&P futures is up 0.34%#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates

#10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5% The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has surpassed 5.02%, reaching the highest level since 2007. The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged again, standing above 5.02%, setting a new high since 2007, as the global bond market faces continuous sell-offs.

the more critical time period tonight. The market's core focus right now is still the FOMC; the expectation of a 25bp rate hike is already very high, close to 90%, so the simple fact of a "rate hike" has been largely priced in. What will truly determine the future direction of $BTC and $ETH is how hawkish Powell will be and whether further rate hikes will continue. BTC is currently still weak, and ETH jointly suppr#FOMCRateCallThisWeek #CLARITYVoteFails50-49 #AISafetyDebateEscalates